Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s office confirmed that he plans to meet with Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen on Wednesday, the 5th of May (or today).
We were critical when former Speaker Nancy Pelosi landed in Taipei last fall in a needless public show of solidarity with Taiwan. It is not that we support China’s view here. But why saber-rattle a superpower with the world’s largest standing army when a similar move in November 2021 – recall that the Biden administration signed a needless security pact with Ukraine – triggered Russia’s actions in Ukraine, bringing the world closer to World War III? Diplomacy doesn’t have to play for TV cameras and Twitterati.
As one of the largest producers of electronics and chips, Taiwan is a crucial American trading partner. Taiwan is a group of self-administered islands in the Southeast China Sea, home to 23 million people, about 100 miles southeast of mainland China. It is about as close to China in identity as China itself. Taiwan’s official UN name is the Republic of China (China’s official name is the People’s Republic of China).
Their history is complex. China’s last dynasty was the Qing (1644–1912). In 1912, Sun Yat-sen, the founder of the Xinhai Revolution and the Kuomintang (KMT) party, helped end 5,000 years of Chinese monarchy rule by forming the Republic of China with its capital in Canton (now Guangzhou). Elections were held in 1912, and KMT won them handily. In 1921, KMT formed a government with the support of the then-small Communist Party of China (CPC), but in 1927, KMT’s new leader began an oppressive policy to start killing members of the CPC, mainly in Shanghai. He also moved the capital to Nanjing.
For the next twenty years, the KMT and CPC fought a bloody civil war which finally ended in 1946 when the CPC won and established the People’s Republic of China with Peking (now Beijing) as its capital. The displaced KMT moved its capital to Taipei, across the Taiwan Strait, and established an independent region called the Republic of China.
As the PRC slowly became the world’s face as the land of the Chinese people, the Taiwanese reveled in their independent status. The PRC insisted that there was only one sovereign Chinese state, emphasizing its so-called One China policy. The UN agreed, and in 1971, Taiwan lost its seat in the international organization to be replaced by Beijing’s PRC.
But Taiwan has continued to thrive as an independent region, with its own government, free elections, and a wealthy economy, with a per capita GDP of nearly $31,000, thrice that of China’s. Taiwan has its own Central Bank. The currency is the New Taiwan Dollar, which is different from the Chinese Yuan.
America, always trying to manage the balance of power in the world’s regions, has drawn a fine line between supporting the One China policy and Taiwan. The U.S. State Department website states: Consistent with the Taiwan Relations Act, the United States makes available defense articles and services as necessary to enable Taiwan to maintain a sufficient self-defense capability -– and maintains our capacity to resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardize the security, or the social or economic system, of Taiwan. America has sold over $25 billion in arms to Taiwan since 2007.
The United States maintains a de-facto embassy in Taipei but doesn’t call it that. Taiwanese citizens get easy electronic visa approvals to visit America, and Americans get visa-free 90-day privileges to visit Taiwan.
In attempting to set the stage for a tough China policy, President-elect Trump called Tsai Ing-wen in December 2016, the first time such a high level of diplomatic communication had happened since 1979. The two leaders spoke for 10 minutes, focusing on politics, the economy, and security in the Asia-Pacific. That phone call upped America’s ante against China, and tensions with China remained high throughout Trump’s four years in office – including on trade and security issues.
But ‘high’ is a relative term. Most Americans will gladly want to return to those Trump years when the only conflicts were around tariffs and cybersecurity. The world is a much different and dangerous place today, thanks, in part, to the short-sightedness of the Democrats. Pelosi’s visit triggered a vehement reaction from China, and Beijing conducted war drills for five days in the South China Sea. America retaliated by pledging weapon sales of more than $20 billion, a dangerous escalation. Last November, President Xi of China warned Biden not to cross Beijing’s “red line,” referring to the self-ruled island of Taiwan. This ominous warning followed his “Don’t play with fire” line in his first call with President Biden last July.
China has scored multiple foreign policy successes in recent months. Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Russia are firmly in China’s corner. A senior French minister said recently that only China has the power to help bring peace in Ukraine, a tacit acknowledgment that American diplomacy has failed. The only world leader Putin will listen to is Xi.
America can ill afford a simultaneous military conflict with China when we are already engaged in a proxy war with Russia, the world’s largest nuclear power. Our weapons stocks are perilously low and will take years to rebuild. America is also facing threats of a recession as inflation and interest rates remain stubbornly high. The country has never been more divided, with the Democrats having arrested the 45th president.
Speaker McCarthy has tried to tread delicately by meeting Tsai Ing-wen at the Ronald Reagan Library, 3,000 miles away from Washington. He could have used his position to invite her to attend a joint session of Congress, but he wisely did not. The Biden administration could also have invited the Taiwanese president to a White House visit. Again, our kudos to the Administration for not doing so.
Taiwan already has America’s goodwill. There’s no need to rekindle it and sharpen the divide further between the U.S. and China.
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Geopolitics And Geoeconomics
#1. Russian Official Sought By ICC For War Crimes Speaks At UN – Al Jazeera
Russia’s commissioner for children’s rights, who is being sought for war crimes, will brief a UN meeting that Russia called to counter what it claims is disinformation about Ukrainian children taken to Russia.
Russia’s UN Mission confirmed that Maria Lvova-Belova would be the lead speaker, by video link, to an informal meeting of the Security Council that has sparked opposition from Ukraine’s supporters.
The International Criminal Court (ICC) issued arrest warrants last month for her and President Vladimir Putin over their suspected involvement in the unlawful deportation and transfer of children from occupied areas of Ukraine to Russia.
#2. Ukraine Updates: Lavrov Vows ‘Tough’ Reply To ‘Hostile’ EU – D.W.
“The European Union has lost Russia. But it is its own fault. It is the EU member countries and EU leaders who openly declare it is necessary to inflict, as they call it, a strategic defeat on Russia,” Lavrov said in an interview.
He added that Russia would respond in a reciprocal and “tough manner if necessary” based on its national interests, describing the EU’s steps in supplying Ukraine with weapons and instructors as “hostile.”
Meanwhile, Lavrov praised Russia’s relationship with China, accusing the West of trying to drive a wedge between the two countries.
#3. U.S. Providing Ukraine With Military Aid Worth Over $2B – A.P.
The U.S. plans to send Ukraine about $500 million in ammunition and equipment and spend more than $2 billion to buy an array of munitions, radar, and other weapons in the future.
The $2.1 billion in longer-term aid, which is being provided under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, will buy missiles for the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System, or Nasams, as well as radar and other weapons, according to the officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the aid was yet to be announced.
An announcement is expected as early as Tuesday.
#4. France’s Macron Visits China Seeking Breakthrough In Ukraine War – Al Jazeera
French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen arrive in China on Wednesday for a three-day state visit to meet with President Xi Jinping.
Macron will be accompanied by a delegation of more than 50 CEOs and meet with the French business community, but all eyes will be on how he and von der Leyen discuss the war in Ukraine with the Chinese leadership.
China is officially neutral on the war but has propped up Russia economically and diplomatically in the face of Western sanctions.
#5. Top Saudi, Iranian Diplomats To Meet In China, Say Media, Officials – Reuters
The top envoys for Saudi Arabia and Iran will meet in Beijing as the two regional rivals work to hash out the next steps of their diplomatic rapprochement amid a China-brokered deal.
Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud and his Iranian counterpart, Hossein Amirabdollahian, will have the first formal meeting between Saudi Arabia and Iran’s most senior diplomats in more than seven years.
Beijing’s secret role in the breakthrough between Tehran and Riyadh shook up dynamics in the Middle East. The United States was the main mediator for decades, flexing its security and diplomatic muscles.
#6. India Protests As China Renames Himalayan Mountains – D.W.
Indian Foreign Ministry spokesman Arindam Bagchi said New Delhi rejected “outright” the renaming of places in its Arunachal Pradesh state.
The comments came in response to a statement by the Chinese Civil Affairs Ministry that gave new official names to geographical features in the territory. China insists that Indian-administered Arunachal Pradesh is part of Tibet and calls it Zangnan.
That statement, the third batch of so-called “standardized geographical names,” gave precise coordinates to the places mentioned. The first six names were released in 2017, and a further 15 in 2021.
#7. Mexico Asks China For Help On Fentanyl, Slams U.S. Critics – Reuters
Mexico’s president said he had written to his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, urging him to help control shipments of Fentanyl.
Lopez Obrador said the letter took shape after a recent visit by U.S. lawmakers, proposing he speak to China to address the fentanyl threat.
U.S. officials contest the view that fentanyl is not produced in Mexico, arguing the opioid is mass-produced in the country using chemicals sourced largely from China.
#8. AI ‘Could Be’ Danger To Society, President Biden Says – Al Jazeera
At the start of a meeting with science and technology advisers, Biden said technology companies had a responsibility to ensure their products were safe before their release.
Biden’s remarks come amid growing debate about how to regulate AI, with some prominent voices calling for a pause on the development of the technology until safeguards can be put in place.
In an open letter published last month, many tech leaders, including Tesla founder Elon Musk and Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak called for a pause on the rollout of AI due to the technology’s “profound risks to society and humanity.”
#9. South Korea, U.S. Hold Air Drills Involving B-52H Strategic Bomber: Defense Ministry – Yonhap
South Korea and the U.S. held combined air drills involving at least one U.S. B-52H strategic bomber, amid joint efforts to sharpen deterrence against evolving North Korean threats.
The bomber was redeployed to the Korean Peninsula about a month after its last deployment here amid tensions caused by Pyongyang’s provocative moves, such as unveiling the Hwasan-31 tactical nuclear warhead last week.
#10. Japan To Provide Equipment To Militaries Of Like-Minded Nations – Kyodo News
Japan decided to provide equipment to the armed forces of “like-minded” countries that share its values, such as the rule of law, to improve its defense capabilities to deal with regional security threats.
According to the government, the Asia-Pacific nations of Malaysia, the Philippines, Bangladesh, and Fiji have been designated as recipients of the new grant assistance, designed to “create a favorable security environment” for Japan.
Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno said the measures would help deter unilateral attempts to change the status quo by force, particularly in the Indo-Pacific, in an apparent warning to China about its maritime assertiveness in regional waters.
#11. Video Probe Shows Internal Damage To Fukushima Reactor – AFP
Its operator said that fresh images from inside a crippled reactor at Japan’s Fukushima nuclear plant revealed heavy damage to its foundation and significant debris.
Tokyo Electric Power (TEPCO) released a series of video clips from a robotic survey inside the Fukushima Daiichi plant’s Reactor 1, one of three that suffered core meltdowns in 2011.
“There were areas that we could not see. But we believe (damage) is spread across large areas,” a TEPCO official told a briefing.
The video illustrated the daunting task ahead of decommissioning the plant after it was hit by a huge tsunami triggered by a 9.0-magnitude earthquake.
#12. Jacinda Ardern Delivers Final Speech To New Zealand Parliament – AFP
Former New Zealand PM Jacinda Ardern bowed out of parliament Wednesday, ending a career marked by empathetic leadership during times of crisis even as she faced escalating abuse online.
Ardern shocked New Zealand earlier this year when she announced she was stepping down as prime minister and retiring from politics.
Ardern steered New Zealand through natural disasters, the Covid-19 pandemic, and the 2019 Christchurch mosque massacre — in which a white supremacist gunman killed 51 Muslim worshippers.
She will now devote herself to stamping out online extremism as part of the Christchurch Call project, which she set up as a prime minister in the wake of the mosque attack.
Republished with permission from TIPP Insights
