President Joe Biden’s job approval rating stands at 39% in early November, rebounding from 36% in October, which marked the lowest score since he took office. Biden’s job approval stands at 78% among Democrats, 13% among Republicans, and 24% among independents.
His approval rating for individual issues is even worse, with no issue receiving favorable ratings from over one-third of Americans.
These are the key findings of a TIPP Poll conducted from November 1 to 3. The national poll surveyed 1,400 Americans using an online survey and has a credibility interval of +/-2.7 percentage points.
The overarching message emerging from the poll is that Americans perceive Biden as a weak president who faces a challenging road ahead as a candidate in next year’s presidential election.
Presidential Leadership Index
Two decades ago, TIPP developed the Presidential Leadership Index, an innovative metric considering favorability, job approval, and Presidential Leadership.
We compute the favorability component based on the survey question, “Overall, is your opinion of the President generally favorable, generally unfavorable, or are you not familiar enough to say one way or the other?”
The basis for the index’s job approval component is the question: “In general, do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as President, or are you not familiar enough to say one way or the other?”
The question, “How would you describe the leadership that Joe Biden is providing for the country?” forms the basis for the leadership component.
The Presidential Leadership Index is the average of its three components. For the index and its components, a reading above 50.0 signals optimism, and below 50.0 indicates pessimism.
A deeper analysis shows this month, all components are below 50, indicating pessimism. The Leadership Index and its components have dropped by approximately 32% over the 34 months, roughly at the rate of one percent a month.
The index posted 42.9 in November, bouncing from 39.0 in October – its lowest reading during Biden’s presidency. Further, all the three index components are below 50.
Below is the chart by party. Democratic support for Biden remains strong. Since taking office, his support dropped 10% among Democrats from 90.5 in February 2021 to 81.0 in November 2023.
Meanwhile, support dropped 39% among Republicans on the index from 24.9 in February 2021 to 15.2 this month.
Further, it has declined 45% among independents from 53.4 in February 2021 to 29.5 this month.
Note that while Democrats are hopeful at 81.0 (above 50.0), both Republicans (15.2) and independents (29.5) express deep pessimism.
Interestingly, the improvement in November is coming from Democrats and Republicans since independents declined.
The table below presents the Presidential Leadership Index for 36 demographic categories for November 2023.
Direction Of Country
Under Biden’s leadership, most Americans think the nation is going in the wrong direction.
Each month, the TIPP Poll probes the general sentiment about the country’s direction using the survey question, “In general, how satisfied are you with the direction that the country is going in at this time?”
Using the responses, we also compute the Direction of the Country index. The index ranges from 0 to 100. An index of 50 or above is positive, below 50 is negative, and 50 is neutral.
Overall, the index entered the negative zone in September 2021 and has remained there for 27 months. The November reading is 37.5, bouncing up from 31.6 in October.
Democrats post the most optimistic reading, at 64.3. Republicans give the lowest score (19.4), indicating extreme pessimism. Independents are in the middle at 26.4.
Independents have been pessimistic throughout Biden’s term, which does not bode well for his reelection.
Grading Biden’s Handling Of Issues
When asked to assess his overall performance using the familiar grading system from A to F, only 33% of respondents gave President Biden an A or B. Most Democrats (68%) give him good grades, while 79% of Republicans and 57% of independents give him a D or F. Notably, almost two-thirds (63%) of Republicans have assigned him an F.
Each month, we ask respondents to grade President Biden’s performance on nine issues plus overall. The chart below shows the percentage of respondents who gave good grades for these issues.
It is noteworthy that Biden’s performance rates below one-third on all nine issues. On six of the nine issues, his favorable ratings are in the 30% to 32% range.
Also, note that Biden’s overall performance at 33% is better than his ratings for the nine issues.
Biden’s Handling Of The Economy
In the TIPP Poll, the economy is the #1 issue for Americans.
We have written in these pages about how Bidenomics, Biden’s signature economic policy, is a failure.
Supporting that finding, President Biden’s handling of the economy gets good grades only from 30% of Americans, nine points less than his overall job approval of 39%. Over half (51%) give him a D or F.
Among Democrats, only 62% give him good grades, much lower than his overall job approval rating of 78%, a 16-point difference.
This month, 78% of Republicans and 61% of independents give him a D or F.
Handling Immigration
Americans consider immigration the #2 important issue facing the country following the economy. It is not an exaggeration to state that there is an invasion at the southern border, and the crisis results from President Biden’s weak immigration policies. Even Democratic politicians in several states and cities have declared states of emergency due to the border crisis. The terrible situation is a catastrophe on multiple fronts: national security, sovereignty, human trafficking, and drug trafficking.
Only one in four (27%) gives President Biden good grades for handling immigration and border security issues. Over half (57%) of Democrats give Biden an A or B. Eight in ten (80%) Republicans, along with 58% of independents, are dissatisfied with President Biden’s handling of immigration. The share of Republicans and independents giving good grades is 9% and 13%, respectively.
Handling Of Israel-Hamas Conflict
After the conflict broke out on October 7, President Biden visited Israel and assured U.S. support.
He said: I come to Israel with a single message: You are not alone. You are not alone. As long as the United States stands — and we will stand forever — we will not let you ever be alone.
Only 32% give Biden favorable grades for his handling of the conflict. While 43% give him failing grades, 17% rate his performance as average.
Biden’s support for Israel in late October has angered many of his one-time supporters, leading to a sharp split within his party. However, 62% give Biden an A or B. One in six (16%) give him a D or F.
On this issue, two-thirds (66%) of Republicans give Biden failing grades, while 49% of independents do so.
Handling Iran
The Hamas attack on Israel brought into focus Biden’s handling of Iran. Only 28% see him favorably, and 46% don’t approve of his performance.
Handling Russia-Ukraine War
President Biden has yet to develop a vision of how to end the Ukraine war. ‘As long as it takes’ is his strategy. He has already committed over $100 billion, and the U.S. is on tap to fund Ukraine’s reconstruction, estimated above $750 billion, when the war ends.
Only 32% give President Biden good grades for his handling of the war. But, most of the Democrats (62%) give him good grades. Most Republicans (71%) and independents (46%) give him failing grades.
Nearly one-half (46%) of Americans are dissatisfied with President Biden’s efforts to settle the conflict.
Americans are feeling the impact of having a weak president.
Under President Biden, the nation has transitioned from energy independence to dependence. Biden’s immigration policies are perceived as weak, and the U.S. has witnessed over seven million people crossing the Southern border. On the foreign affairs front, America’s standing as a global leader is in jeopardy.
Fixing these problems won’t be easy. Biden’s approval ratings are quite low and may not be of much help if he becomes the Democratic nominee. It’s up to the voters to decide if his vision is the best for our country.
Our performance in 2020 for accuracy as rated by Washington Post:
TIPP Takes
Geopolitics And Geoeconomics
1. Netanyahu Says Israel To Have ‘Security Responsibility’ For Gaza After Fighting – BBC
Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu says Israel will have “overall security responsibility” for Gaza once the fighting ends for an “indefinite period.”
He resists calls for a ceasefire but says shorter “humanitarian pauses” might be possible.
In its morning update, the Israel Defense Forces said IDF troops took control of a Hamas stronghold in the northern Gaza Strip. They located anti-tank missiles and launchers, weapons, and intelligence materials.
2. Hamas Leader Refuses To Acknowledge Killing Of Civilians In Israel – BBC
Moussa Abu Marzouk has refused to acknowledge that his group killed civilians in Israel, claiming only conscripts were targeted.
The senior Hamas leader told the BBC that “women, children, and civilians were exempt” from Hamas’s attacks.
His claims are in stark contrast to the wealth of video evidence of Hamas men shooting unarmed adults and children. Israel says Hamas killed more than 1,400 people in the 7 October attacks, most of them civilians.
3. UN Chief Warns Gaza Becoming ‘Graveyard For Children,’ Calls For Immediate Ceasefire – Al Arabiya
“The unfolding catastrophe makes the need for a humanitarian ceasefire more urgent with every passing hour,” UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres told reporters at the UN headquarters.
“The nightmare in Gaza is more than a humanitarian crisis. It is a crisis of humanity,” he said. Guterres was formally launching a recently announced $1.2 billion UN humanitarian appeal to help 2.7 million Palestinians over the entire Gaza Strip and parts of the West Bank and East Jerusalem.
4. Gaza’s Al Quds Hospital To Run Out Of Fuel Within 48 Hours: Palestinian Red Crescent – Al Arabiya
Gaza’s Al Quds hospital is set to run out of fuel within the next 48 hours, putting all life-saving equipment, neonatal incubators, and intensive care units out of function, the Palestinian Red Crescent warned.
“The situation is critical and time-sensitive,” the humanitarian organization said in an urgent appeal to international health and relief organizations.
5. Israel Says Hamas Using Indonesia-Funded Hospital, Jakarta Responds – AFP
Indonesia denied an Israeli claim that a hospital built in Gaza using Indonesian funding sits atop a network of Hamas tunnels and is located near a launchpad for rocket attacks.
The Indonesian charity that operates the hospital, MER-C, also denied Hamas using the facility. The “IDF’s accusation is a precondition to justify attacks against us. Therefore, we need to debunk it”, MER-C chief Sarbini Abdul Murad said.
6. Ukraine’s Zelenskyy Says War Complicates Plans For 2024 Elections – Al Jazeera
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says discussions about the fate of scheduled 2024 elections are irresponsible as the country is locked in a war with invading Russian forces.
In a video address, Zelenskyy said Ukraine must remain focused on its military challenges and stay united.
Ukraine is currently under martial law as it battles Russian forces. But as the war drags on, Zelenskyy has considered whether a special provision could be invoked to hold elections.
7. Russia Formally Withdraws From Key Post-Cold War European Armed Forces Treaty – Reuters
The 1990 Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE), signed a year after the fall of the Berlin Wall, placed verifiable limits on categories of conventional military equipment that NATO and the then-Warsaw Pact could deploy.
The treaty was designed to prevent either side of the Cold War from amassing forces for a swift offensive against the other in Europe. Russia blamed the United States for undermining post-Cold War security by enlarging the NATO military alliance.
8. Will UAE Hurt Russia With Export Controls To Please The U.S. Amid Israel War? – Al Jazeera
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has been in the crosshairs of the United States and the European Union for its continued links to Russia.
Any export control measures by the UAE will be to shore up support from the U.S. in case the Israel-Gaza war expands. In that scenario, the UAE would want to shore up ties with its ultimate security guarantor, the U.S., according to experts.
9. U.S. Proposes Defense Talks With China Next Week, Official Says – Nikkei Asia
Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin is seeking a meeting with his Chinese counterpart on the sidelines of a security forum in Indonesia next week, a senior U.S. defense official said, as the two countries attempt to thaw their tense relations.
The Pentagon has requested a meeting with a Chinese defense minister in Jakarta, the official said. Austin is scheduled to attend the ASEAN Defense Ministers Plus conference on Nov. 16. China is expected to send a delegation to the forum.
10. China Owed More Than $1 Trillion In Belt And Road Debt: Report – AFP
This makes China the biggest debt collector in the world, according to a report by AidData, a research institute tracking development finance at Virginia’s College of William and Mary.
Beijing says more than 150 countries have signed up to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which was unveiled a decade ago. The first decade of the initiative saw China distribute huge loans to fund the construction of bridges, ports, and highways in low and middle-income countries. More than half of those loans have now entered their principal repayment period, the report said.
11. China Urges Tibetan Students To Denounce Dalai Lama – RFA
Officials summoned more than 400 teachers and students from elementary and middle schools in Ngari prefecture of the western Tibet Autonomous Region of China to attend a workshop on “anti-separatism” in October, two sources said.
At the workshop, attendees were told “to confer their allegiance toward the state ideology and condemn separatism and His Holiness the Dalai Lama,” one Tibetan told RFA.
12. Vietnam Rapidly Builds Up South China Sea Reef – RFA
Vietnam has been developing the Barque Canada Reef in the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea, expanding its reclaimed area more than four times in less than a year, satellite imagery shows.
It is still, however, much smaller than any of China’s so-called Big Three – Fiery Cross Reef, Mischief Reef, and Subi Reef – artificial islands that Beijing developed and fully militarized.
13. Nobel Peace Prize Winner Narges Mohammadi Goes On Hunger Strike In Iranian Jail – NDTV
Imprisoned Iranian Nobel Peace Prize winner Narges Mohammadi began a hunger strike on Monday to protest against Iran’s denial of medical care to her as well as against the country’s strict hijab rules, BBC reported.
Human Rights Activists News Agency said authorities had not let the 51-year-old go to the hospital for heart and lung treatment last week because she had refused to wear a mandatory head scarf for the visit.
14. Italy To Seize $835m From Airbnb In Tax Evasion Inquiry – BBC
In 2022, Airbnb challenged the Italian law requiring the company and other short-term rental providers to withhold 21% of the rental income from landlords and pay it to tax authorities.
The firm argued that Italy’s requirements on taxation contravened the European Union’s principle of freedom to provide services across the 27-country bloc. The EU’s top court later ruled that Airbnb should abide by the requirements.
Italian prosecutors have launched tax-related inquiries against Netflix and Meta, according to media reports.
15. South Korea Plans To Launch First Military Reconnaissance Satellite This Month – UPI
South Korea will send its first military reconnaissance satellite into orbit on Nov. 30, defense officials confirmed, amid reports that North Korea is moving ahead with a third try at launching its spy satellite.
The South Korean satellite will be launched from Vandenberg Space Force Base in Santa Barbara, California, and the launch vehicle will be a Falcon 9 rocket operated by Elon Musk’s SpaceX.
16. South Korea Sees Signs Of N. Korea Receiving Technical Support From Russia Over Spy Satellite – Yonhap
“It is hard to predict when North Korea will make the third attempt for the launch. But there seem to be signs of the North receiving technical assistance from Russia,” Unification Minister Kim Yung-ho said.
“There is a very high possibility that North Korea will make provocations once it completes making up for technical problems,” Kim said.
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Republished with permission from TIPP Insights
