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GOP must pursue fiscal austerity to gain an advantage in 2024 election

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  • Majority of Americans find the debt trajectory unsustainable
  • Republicans hold an advantage in public trust for fiscal matters
  • GOP’s trust advantage is driven by self-confidence and independent support

GOP Must Pursue Fiscal Austerity To Gain An Advantage In 2024 Election

On September 19, 2023, the U.S. Department of the Treasury informed Americans of a historic milestone – the national debt is crossing $33 trillion for the first time.

Today, on December 6, the debt stands at $33.82 trillion.

That is, in a period of 78 days, the debt has increased by $818 billion, at a daily rate of $10.5 billion per day!

At the current rate, the next milestone, passing $34 trillion, will occur a few days before Christmas, around December 23, 2023. In short, we will have increased the nation’s debt by a trillion dollars in 95 days.

The high spending and fiscal mess caught the attention of two out of the three credit rating agencies, leading to the downgrade of U.S. debt from its gold-plated AAA status.

First, on August 1st, credit rating agency Fitch Ratings downgraded U.S. Treasuries to AA+ from AAA. Fitch explained that:

it reflects the expected fiscal deterioration over the next three years, a high and growing general government debt burden, and the erosion of governance relative to AA and AAA rated peers over the last two decades that has manifested in repeated debt-limit standoffs and last-minute resolutions.

Following Fitch, on November 10, Moody’s downgraded its outlook for the U.S. government’s AAA-rated credit to “negative” from “stable,” saying the U.S. government was at risk of dropping a notch because of high budget deficits and Congress’s inability to deal with them.

Like borrowers with low credit scores paying a premium to the banks to finance car loans or mortgages, the Treasury has to pay higher interest rates on its debt to compensate for the increased risk.

The U.S. paid nearly $900 billion in interest during the last fiscal year, and at the current interest rates, the cost of servicing the debt will exceed $1 trillion a year.

Recently, the Wall Street Journal headlined, “The Economy Is Great.” Nobel Laureate Paul Krugman, a Biden ally, described the economy as “surreally good.” Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen proclaimed that the United States economy is not only “doing very well,” but that the nation can “certainly afford” to pay for two wars at the same time: Ukraine and Israel.

But Americans don’t agree with the elites. They think the current trajectory is simply not sustainable.

In a TIPP Poll completed in early December, nearly two-thirds said the trajectory of the national debt is not sustainable. Americans of all stripes and persuasions subscribe to this notion. That includes 50% of Democrats, 74% of Republicans, and 70% of independents; ideologically, 71% of conservatives, 65% of moderates, and 56% of liberals.

GOP Must Pursue Fiscal Austerity To Gain An Advantage In 2024 Election

To understand what Americans think should be done to control out-of-control debt, we asked a question in the TIPP Poll: What should the U.S. do to reduce its debt? We provided the following choices: cut spending, increase taxes, or both, and not sure.

Over one-half (52%) want to cut spending, roughly one in ten (9%) think taxes should be increased, another quarter (25%) desire both, and 13% are not sure.

GOP Must Pursue Fiscal Austerity To Gain An Advantage In 2024 Election

We allocated “both” to the two actions of increasing taxes and cutting spending, which yielded the chart below.

Notice that over 60% of all categories favor spending cuts. Also, 50% of Democrats and 53% of liberals favor increasing taxes, while the enthusiasm to raise taxes is relatively low among others.

GOP Must Pursue Fiscal Austerity To Gain An Advantage In 2024 Election

Republicans’ Edge

More Americans trust the Republican Party than the Democratic Party when it comes to controlling government spending. This nine-point advantage mainly stems from Republicans’ self-confidence (79% for Republicans vs. 64% for Democrats). Additionally, Republicans lead among independents by 23% to 13%. Interestingly, 53% of independents do not trust either party.

GOP Must Pursue Fiscal Austerity To Gain An Advantage In 2024 Election

How about reducing taxes? Once again, more Americans have faith in the GOP than the Democratic Party, with a margin of 36% to 31%. Self-confidence is higher among Republicans (77%) compared to Democrats (67%). Further, more independents trust Republicans than Democrats (23% to 18%). Interestingly, nearly 49% of independents don’t trust either party.

GOP Must Pursue Fiscal Austerity To Gain An Advantage In 2024 Election

We observe a similar pattern when it comes to who Americans trust to grow the economy. The GOP has an eight-point advantage, 41% to 33%, over the Democratic Party. This advantage is driven by higher self-confidence (88% compared to 74% for Democrats) and a 29% to 18% lead among independents.

GOP Must Pursue Fiscal Austerity To Gain An Advantage In 2024 Election

Perception is reality. To gain an advantage in 2024, the GOP must solidify the advantage it has by being fiscally austere.

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Our performance in 2020 for accuracy as rated by Washington Post:

GOP Must Pursue Fiscal Austerity To Gain An Advantage In 2024 Election
Source: Washington Post

TIPP Takes

Geopolitics, Geoeconomics, And More

1. UN Chief Says War Causing Catastrophe Gaza May Never Recover From – BBC

Antonio Guterres directly warns Security Council member states that the humanitarian system in Gaza may collapse.

GOP Must Pursue Fiscal Austerity To Gain An Advantage In 2024 Election

He called for the Security Council to “help avert a humanitarian catastrophe” and stressed that the situation was deteriorating rapidly. His comments were sharply criticized by Israel Foreign Minister Eli Cohen – who called Guterres’ tenure a “danger to world peace.”, saying that calling for a ceasefire in Gaza “constitutes support of Hamas.”


2. UN Secretary-General Invokes Article 99 On Gaza – Al Jazeera

The UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has invoked Article 99 of the UN Charter, urging the UN Security Council to act on the war in Gaza.

GOP Must Pursue Fiscal Austerity To Gain An Advantage In 2024 Election
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres

Article 99 of the UN Charter gives the secretary-general the power to “bring to the attention of the Security Council any matter which in his opinion may threaten the maintenance of international peace and security.”


3. Republicans Block Ukraine Funding Over U.S.-Mexico Border Despite Biden Pleas – Al Jazeera

Republican senators have blocked $106bn in new funding for Ukraine and Israel, rejecting appeals from President Biden amid the exclusion of immigration reforms they had demanded as part of the package.

GOP Must Pursue Fiscal Austerity To Gain An Advantage In 2024 Election

If Congress failed to pass the measure, Biden had warned of dire consequences for Kyiv – and a “gift” to Russia’s Vladimir Putin.

“We’re completely out of control at the southern border, and it’s time to resolve this,” Senator James Lankford, a lead Republican negotiator on immigration and border issues, said.

Related tippinsights Editorial:

Dems And Senate GOP Appear Boxed In On Border And Ukraine


4. Moscow Enhancing Iran-Made Shahed Drones With Russian Weapons, Modifications: UK – Al Arabiya

Russia most likely has been supplementing Iran-supplied Shahed kamikaze drones with Russian weapons and modifications since mid-2023, British military intelligence reported.

GOP Must Pursue Fiscal Austerity To Gain An Advantage In 2024 Election

The Ukrainian Air Force had reported at the end of November that dozens of kamikaze drones that Russia launched have an unusual black livery and are covered with carbon that absorbs radar signals.


5. Kyiv Assassinates Pro-Russian Former Ukrainian Politician Near Moscow: Reports – WION

A former pro-Russian member of the Ukrainian parliament was shot dead near Moscow; the responsibility for the alleged assassination, according to media reports, has been claimed by Kyiv.

GOP Must Pursue Fiscal Austerity To Gain An Advantage In 2024 Election
Illia Kyva

The former Ukrainian lawmaker, identified as Illia Kyva, was shot dead in a park in the Odintsovo region southwest of Moscow. Kyva, a member of the Ukrainian parliament before the Russian invasion, has been in Moscow throughout the war and often criticized officials in Kyiv online.


6. Belt And Road: Italy Pulls Out Of Flagship Chinese Project – BBC

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s administration notified Beijing that it would cease participating in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) ahead of a deadline at the year’s end.

GOP Must Pursue Fiscal Austerity To Gain An Advantage In 2024 Election
Italian PM Giorgia Meloni

Italy was the only major Western nation to sign up to the BRI, one of China’s most ambitious trade and infrastructure projects, in 2019.

Since coming to office last year, Ms. Meloni has sought to lead a more pro-Western and pro-NATO foreign policy than her predecessors.

Related tippinsights Editorial

Italy Weighs Exit from China’s Belt and Road Initiative


7. China Starts Up World’s First Fourth-Generation Nuclear Reactor – Reuters

China has started commercial operations at a new generation nuclear reactor that is the first of its kind in the world.

GOP Must Pursue Fiscal Austerity To Gain An Advantage In 2024 Election

China aims to produce 10% of its electricity from nuclear energy by 2035 and 18% by 2060, but as of September this year, it has not met its 2020 target to install 58 gigawatts of nuclear capacity.


8. China’s Xi Jinping Holds Talks With EU’s Von Der Leyen And Charles Michel In Beijing – WION

The talks were held regarding the divisions between the bloc and its largest economic partner, which ranged from trade to ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine.

GOP Must Pursue Fiscal Austerity To Gain An Advantage In 2024 Election
Charles Michel and Ursula Von Der Leyen with Xi Jinping

This year, the diplomatic engagement was ramped up by China and the EU to steer post-pandemic recovery and repair damaged relations, as several of its commissioners visited Beijing to restart high-level dialogue.


9. Australia And Papua New Guinea Sign ‘Historic’ Security Pact – Al Jazeera

Australia and neighboring Papua New Guinea (PNG) have signed a bilateral security agreement that will provide the Pacific state with more assistance for its police and support for its legal system.

GOP Must Pursue Fiscal Austerity To Gain An Advantage In 2024 Election

The agreement comes amid growing rivalry between Washington and Beijing in the Asia Pacific. China has sought to boost its security presence in the Pacific Islands, signing deals to equip and train police in the Solomon Islands and Vanuatu, raising concerns in the U.S. and Australia.


10. UK Immigration Minister Robert Jenrick Resigns Over Rwanda Bill – WION

Jenrick quit after the UK government published a draft legislation aimed at deploying the Rwandan migrant deportation scheme.

GOP Must Pursue Fiscal Austerity To Gain An Advantage In 2024 Election
Robert Jenrick and Rishi Sunak

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s administration published emergency legislation to ensure Rwanda was considered a safe country after Supreme Court judges in the UK deemed it wasn’t.

In his resignation, Jenrick said that he had quit due to “strong disagreements with the direction” of the government’s policy on immigration.


11. Boris Johnson Apologizes To UK COVID Victims – D.W.

Former British PM Boris Johnson admitted that his government was slow to grasp the scale of the global COVID pandemic and apologized to the victims and the bereaved at the UK’s COVID-19 inquiry.

GOP Must Pursue Fiscal Austerity To Gain An Advantage In 2024 Election

The UK’s Health Secretary during the pandemic, Matt Hancock, told the inquiry last week that he had tried to raise the alarm inside the government, saying thousands of lives could have been saved by putting the country into lockdown a few weeks earlier than the eventual date of March 23, 2020.


12. Saudi Arabia To Grant 30-Year Tax Breaks To Companies Moving HQs To Riyadh – Al Arabiya

The announcement comes less than one month before the January 1 deadline for multinationals to open their regional headquarters in Saudi Arabia or lose out on government contracts.

GOP Must Pursue Fiscal Austerity To Gain An Advantage In 2024 Election
Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud, Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia

The tax-relief package includes a zero-percent rate for corporate income tax and withholding tax, the ministry said in a statement. It also includes the ability to apply for unlimited work visas and a 10-year quota waiver for hiring Saudi nationals.


13. Iran Launches Animals Into Space As It Revives Bid For Human Missions – Al Jazeera

Iran has sent a capsule carrying animals into space to boost its Western-contested space program in preparation for human missions.

GOP Must Pursue Fiscal Austerity To Gain An Advantage In 2024 Election

State media released a clip of the launch of an Iranian-made rocket carrying the capsule, which they said was successfully sent 80 miles into orbit. Neither state media nor Telecommunications Minister Isa Zarepour confirmed the news and said what kind of animals were in the capsule.


14. Galaxy Leader Ship Seized By Yemen’s Houthis Becomes A Tourist Attraction – Reuters

The Galaxy Leader commercial ship, seized by Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi militants last month, has been turned into a tourist attraction for Yemenis who flock in dozens to tour it off the coasts of the Houthi-controlled Red Sea port of al-Salif where the vessel is anchored.

GOP Must Pursue Fiscal Austerity To Gain An Advantage In 2024 Election

Visitors are allowed only to tour the ship’s deck, where they walk on large U.S. and Israeli flags stretched on the deck’s floor and take selfies on its deck.


15. Venezuela Raises The Stakes Over Disputed Guyana Territory – Al Jazeera

Tension is growing between Venezuela and Guyana, as Caracas said it is preparing legislation to claim Guyana’s Essequibo region as its own.

GOP Must Pursue Fiscal Austerity To Gain An Advantage In 2024 Election

Venezuela has for decades laid claim to Essequibo, claiming that the Essequibo River to the region’s east forms a natural border and has historically been recognized as such. Venezuela’s latest efforts to overtake the territory were piqued 2015 when ExxonMobil announced it had found oil in commercial quantities off the Essequibo coast.


16. U.S. Says Sudan’s Warring Sides Have Committed War Crimes – UPI

The warring sides in Sudan’s nearly eight-month bloody conflict have committed war crimes, the United States declared.

GOP Must Pursue Fiscal Austerity To Gain An Advantage In 2024 Election
Gen. Abdel Fattah Burhan and his former deputy and current rival, Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo

Secretary of State Antony Blinken explained the determinations provide “force and renewed urgency” for African and international efforts to end the violence and address the humanitarian and human rights crises.


17. Taliban’s School Policies Also Harm Afghan Boys – Report – A.P.

The Taliban’s “abusive” educational policies are not only harming girls in Afghanistan but also boys, Human Rights Watch (HRW) said in a report published.

GOP Must Pursue Fiscal Austerity To Gain An Advantage In 2024 Election

The departure of qualified teachers, including women, regressive curriculum changes, and the increase in corporal punishment have led to greater fear of going to school and falling attendance. Because the Taliban have dismissed all female teachers from boys’ schools, many boys are taught by unqualified people or sit in classrooms with no teachers at all.


 18. EU Seeks Agreement On World’s First AI Law – AFP

The EU will seek to thrash out an agreement on sweeping rules to regulate AI on Wednesday, following months of difficult negotiations, particularly on monitoring generative AI like ChatGPT.

GOP Must Pursue Fiscal Austerity To Gain An Advantage In 2024 Election

The EU is racing to approve the world’s first comprehensive AI law after the issue became more urgent when the ChatGPT bot burst onto the scene last year, highlighting AI’s dizzying advances.


19. Weight-Loss Drug Zepbound Now Available At U.S. Pharmacies – UPI

The newly approved weight-loss medication known as Zepbound is now available for patients, drugmaker Eli Lilly announced Tuesday.

GOP Must Pursue Fiscal Austerity To Gain An Advantage In 2024 Election

“Today opens another chapter for adults living with obesity who have been looking for a new treatment option like Zepbound,” Rhonda Pacheco, group vice president of Lilly Diabetes and Obesity, U.S., said in a company news release.


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Republished with permission from TIPP Insights

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