Testifying before the House Armed Services Committee this week and arguing that the House must pass the $61 billion Ukraine aid package as a dire emergency, Celeste A. Wallander, the Pentagon’s top policy official for Ukraine and Russia, said, “Putin is not going to stop at Ukraine.”
It is a line that has been repeated thousands of times by every Neocon in the Biden administration (and the GOP) with the hope that repeating a catchy phrase will somehow ultimately stick.
The problem is that the claim is a big lie and intended to keep America’s Military Industrial Complex well-oiled and involved in forever wars – nothing more. There is zero evidence that Putin will expand his attacks beyond Ukraine. Zero. Nada. Zip.
A geography primer: Russia, the world’s largest country spanning nine time zones, occupies 11% of Earth’s land mass. It is 66% larger in size than America and 70% larger than China.
The idea that Russia would clamor for even more land by invading its neighbors is nonsense. To colonize new territory long-term, Russia would need people to move to these countries and establish Russian culture there (language, food, and the arts). Historically, the colonial powers did this. Generations of the French made West Africa their home like generations of the British did across India, Pakistan, and countries of Southeast Asia.
Russia has one of the lowest populations among the world’s big countries, with only 143 million people occupying its vast regions, compared to China’s 1.4 billion people or the United States’ 341 million residents. Russia’s population density is only about 22 people per sq mile, compared to America’s 96 and China’s 393. Why would a population that already dwarfs its large size want to spread out to foreign countries?
Russia’s neighbors. Russia shares its borders with 14 countries, more than any nation in the world:
- North Korea
- China
- Mongolia
- Kazakhstan
- Azerbaijan
- Georgia
- Ukraine
- Belarus
- Latvia
- Poland
- Lithuania
- Estonia
- Finland
- Norway
Russia enjoys excellent relationships with China, Belarus, and North Korea, so it is unlikely to invade them.
Ukraine. Even before the West began sending military supplies, logistical support, and lethal weapons to Ukraine, Russia, after initially advancing to the outskirts of Kyiv in Feb/March 2022, hastily retreated when Ukraine mounted a vigorous defense. Two years after the war, Russia has struggled to advance past Ukraine’s east to Kharkiv or south to Odessa, occupying only about 20% of Ukraine after sacrificing hundreds of thousands of soldiers and billions of dollars.
How could Russia reasonably occupy all of Ukraine, including the 80% of Ukraine’s large land mass that Russia doesn’t yet control? Does the Biden administration really believe that Russia would colonize Ukraine and run it from Kyiv?
NATO countries. Before Finland was admitted to NATO, Russia shared land borders with Norway (a NATO founding member in 1949), Poland, Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania. Poland joined NATO in 1999 when Putin was Boris Yeltsin’s Prime Minister. Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania joined in March 2004, when Putin was president. Putin has never attacked any of these countries during all these years in power. Why would Russia attack them now? Given Article 5 protections that specify that an attack on one NATO country is an attack on all 31 NATO members, how would Russia fare against the might of the United States and the rest of the NATO powers?
Other neighbors. If the NATO countries are not at imminent risk from a Russian invasion, what does the statement “Putin is not going to stop at Ukraine” mean? Since invasions can only happen over land (we doubt if the Biden administration is suggesting that Russia would attack non-contiguous countries by air or sea), the only countries that Moscow could plausibly invade after we follow the process of elimination above would be Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Mongolia, and Georgia.
Kazakhstan and Russia enjoy excellent relations and are both founding members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (a NATO look alike). Why would Russia attack its security partner, Kazakhstan?
According to the Azerbaijan Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Azerbaijan and Russia have strategic partnership relations, and political cooperation between the two countries has significantly increased over recent years.
Mongolia, a landlocked country sandwiched between two great powers, Russia and China, enjoys comprehensive strategic partnerships with both nations. Russia would never invade Mongolia.
It then all comes down to the country of Georgia, with which Putin has fought relentlessly over the years and enjoys only a tenuous working relationship. So the Beltway’s Military Industrial Complex is fighting so hard to send aid to Ukraine so that the West can next save Georgia from Russia? Is this what this aggressive Ukraine aid campaign is all about?
We find it unconscionable and irresponsible that not a single media outlet has challenged the Neocons using our line of analysis.
We repeat: Russia is too drained out, too small of an economic power, and too damaged to invade another country and run it like an administrative state. Russia waged a war against Ukraine to fight America’s constant interference in Kyiv, going back to the Maidan revolution of 2014. Since 2008, Russia has insisted that Ukraine, with a Russian legacy dating to the mid-1600s and a founding constitution that celebrated its neutrality, cannot permit or situate NATO weapons right on the Russian border. Such presence of NATO forces would constitute an existential threat to the world’s largest nuclear power.
Putin has never said privately, to the press, or at international summits that he wants to invade any of his 13 other neighbors. Because it just does not make sense – just as the Biden administration’s repeated false claims that Putin is not going to stop at Ukraine.
TIPP Takes
Geopolitics, Geoeconomics, And More
1. Israel’s Netanyahu Not Consulted On Killing Of Haniyeh’s Sons: Report – Reuters
The airstrike in Gaza that killed three sons of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was done without consulting senior commanders or political leaders, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Israeli media reported.
Walla news agency reported neither Netanyahu nor Defense Minister Yoav Gallant had been told in advance of the strike, which was coordinated by the Israeli military and the Shin Bet intelligence service. It said Amir, Mohammad, and Hazem Haniyeh had been targeted as fighters and not because they were the sons of Hamas’s political leader.
2. U.S. Intel Indicates Iran Could Strike ‘Israeli Soil’ In Next 24 To 48 Hours — Report – The Times Of Israel
The Wall Street Journal report quotes an unnamed U.S. source as saying Israel is preparing for a possible strike on either southern or northern Israel.
However, it also quotes a source close to the Iranian regime, saying that Tehran has not decided. Iran has threatened to attack Israel following an April 1 airstrike on an Iranian consulate building in the Syrian capital of Damascus, which killed several Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders, including two generals.
3. Blinken Asks China, Counterparts In Middle East To Rein In Iran On Israel – Al Arabiya
Secretary of State Antony Blinken has asked China’s foreign minister and other counterparts to use their influence to dissuade Iran from striking Israel, the State Department said.
Blinken spoke by telephone over the past day to his Chinese, Turkish, and European counterparts “to make clear that escalation is not in anyone’s interest and that countries should urge Iran not to escalate,” State Department spokesman Matthew Miller told reporters.
4. Gaza Vs. Governance: Israelis Feel The Burden Of The Netanyahu ‘Paradox’ – Al Arabiya
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is under mounting pressure from constituents, politicians within his government, and world leaders, whose unease over the rising death toll and destruction from Israel’s ongoing war with Hamas in Gaza is growing by the day.
The Israeli public supports the government and military in the country’s war against Gaza, but trust in the political establishment, and the PM is among the lowest ever as calls for Benjamin Netanyahu to resign grow increasingly louder.
5. Putin Mocks Planned Ukraine Conference And Says Russia Won’t Accept Any Enforced Peace Plans – A.P.
Switzerland’s government said it would host a high-level international conference in June to help chart a path toward peace in Ukraine and expressed hope that Russia might join in the peace process someday.
Putin charged that Russia hadn’t been invited to join June’s talks, pointing at Swiss recognition that a peace process can’t happen without Russia.
“They think there is nothing for us to do there, but at the same time, they say that it’s impossible to decide anything without us. It would have been funny if it weren’t so sad,” Putin said.
6. Russian ‘Shadow Fleet’ Ups Risk Of Baltic Sea Spill, Finland’s Border Guard Says – RFE/RL
Finland’s Border Guard warned that the risk of a large Baltic Sea oil spill has risen since Russia began using a “shadow fleet” of tankers to circumvent curbs on its oil exports.
The head of the Border Guard’s maritime safety unit said that around 70 “ghost” oil tankers navigate through the Gulf of Finland weekly, increasing the risk of “an accident with environmental consequences.” Experts say the fleet of tankers with opaque ownership or without proper insurance has allowed the Kremlin to keep exporting despite a Western-imposed embargo and oil price cap.
7. Massive Russian Strike Knocks Out Major Power Plant In Kyiv Region – Euronews
A Russian strike has effectively destroyed a major power station near Kyiv, dealing a new blow to Ukraine’s already badly damaged civilian energy grid.
The attack knocked out the entire generative capacity of the Trypillia Thermal Power Plant in the city of Ukrainka in Kyiv Oblast, according to local authorities. It was one of a hail of overnight aerial strikes targeting critical infrastructure, part of a Russian strategy to put the Ukrainian economy and everyday life under intolerable strain.
8. Russia Sends Military Instructors To Niger – Reuters
Military instructors and personnel from Russia’s defense ministry arrived in Niger, Niger state television RTN said, in a further sign the West African country is building closer relations with Moscow like its junta-led neighbors.
In a Thursday broadcast, RTN showed footage of a military cargo plane unloading gear as people in fatigues stood by. It said the deployment followed a recent agreement between Niger’s junta and Russian President Vladimir Putin to boost cooperation.
9. Biden Urged To Ban China-Made Electric Vehicles – BBC
The chair of the Senate Banking Committee, Senator Sherrod Brown, wrote, “Chinese electric vehicles are an existential threat to the American auto industry.”
His comments are the strongest of any U.S. lawmaker, while others have called for steep tariffs to keep Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) out of the country.
Senator Brown said, “We cannot allow China to bring its government-backed cheating to the American auto industry.”
10. China Counters Closer U.S.-Japan-Philippines Ties With Diplomatic Flurry – Nikkei Asia
While President Joe Biden invited leaders from Japan and the Philippines to the White House this week to enhance regional alliances, China was busy tightening its own ties with key partners on the other side of the globe.
Beijing showed ‘it also has friends’ in North Korea, Russia, Vietnam, ex-Taiwan leader.
Zhao Leji, the chairman of the National People’s Congress, landed in North Korea for a three-day tour. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov attended a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, center, in Beijing on April 9.
11. Hong Kong Jails European Citizen For ‘Demonizing China’ – BBC
A Portuguese man has become the first European citizen jailed under the China-imposed National Security Law in Hong Kong, a law widely criticized by rights groups.
Joseph John, also known as Wong Kin-chung, is of Portuguese and Hong Kong nationality. He was arrested for posting pro-independence and anti-China content on social media after returning to Hong Kong to visit family in 2022. In February, he was convicted of “secession” and on Thursday sentenced to five years in jail.
12. China Says Launch Of Key Relay Satellite Successful – Reuters
China National Space Administration (CNSA) said its launch of a key signal relay satellite was a “complete success,” and it would serve as the communication bridge for its future lunar probe missions for years to come, state media reported.
China launched the satellite Queqiao-2, which will be used as a communications bridge between Earth’s ground operations and upcoming lunar probe missions on the far side of the moon until at least 2030.
13. Volkswagen To Invest €2.5 Billion In China – D.W.
Volkswagen announced it would invest €2.5 billion ($2.7 billion) to expand its operations in China.
The move comes as the German auto giant tries to compete with local manufacturers to prevent a sales slide in its most important market, China. Volkswagen has a 40-year history in China and was the top-selling auto brand for many years until 2023, when it lost its crown to homegrown electric vehicle maker BYD.
14. U.S., Japan Military Alliance To Get Biggest Revamp Since 1951 – D.W.
President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida agreed to a wide range of issues at the start of the Japanese leader’s weeklong visit to the U.S.
The common ground includes the importance of support for Ukraine, the joint development of emerging technologies, and plans for the two nations’ space agencies to work together to put a Japanese astronaut on the moon.
Washington and Tokyo plan to upgrade defense ties to maintain security and peace in the Asia-Pacific region.
15. Report Links Fashion Giants H&M, Zara To Deforestation, Corruption In Brazil – AFP
Fast fashion giants H&M and Zara have used cotton from farms linked to massive deforestation, land-grabbing, corruption, and violence in Brazil, a report by the environmental group Earthlight said.
The British environmental group said that despite abuses linked to its production, such cotton had been labeled as ethical by the leading certification scheme Better Cotton, exposing “deep flaws” in the oversight program.
16. Truong My Lan: Vietnamese Billionaire Sentenced To Death For $44bn Fraud – BBC
In what was the most spectacular trial ever held in Vietnam, a 67-year-old Vietnamese property developer was sentenced to death for looting one of the country’s largest banks over 11 years.
Truong My Lan was convicted of taking out $44bn (£35bn) in loans from the Saigon Commercial Bank. Although Vietnamese law prohibits any individual from holding more than 5% of the shares in any bank, prosecutors say that through hundreds of shell companies and other proxies, Truong My Lan owned more than 90% of Saigon Commercial.
17. Lunchables Contain Concerning Levels Of Lead, Sodium, Consumer Reports Warns – HealthDay News
Consumer Reports warns that Lunchables, those ubiquitous plastic packets of cheese, deli meats, and crackers that many parents choose for convenience, contain concerning levels of lead and sodium.
To arrive at that conclusion, the advocacy group tested lunchables made by Kraft Heinz and similar lunch and snack products from other manufacturers.
“They’re highly processed, and regularly eating processed meat, a main ingredient in many of these products, has been linked to increased risk of some cancers,” Amy Keating, a registered dietitian at Consumer Reports (CR), said.
Republished with permission from TIPP Insights
