(The Center Square) − The United States has been asleep at the wheel while its adversaries have been hard at work to develop nuclear arsenals, warned Sen. Deb Fischer, R-Neb. a ranking member of the Senate Armed Services Subcommittee on Strategic Forces.
“[Some people] dream of the day when China, Russia and North Korea decide they want world peace. The day our enemies voluntarily dismantle their nuclear programs because America has done the same,” said Fischer at a panel put on by the Heritage Foundation. “We need to be clear on this: that is a fantasy. A utopian dream world.”
The U.S. Defense Department is currently undergoing a modernization of its nuclear capabilities with the Sentinel program.
“Our nuclear deterrent is nearing a crossroads. To date, we have preserved this deterrent by extending the lifespan of legacy nuclear forces and infrastructure—in many cases for decades beyond what was originally intended. But these systems will not remain viable indefinitely,” Former Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Paul Selva said in a report released by the Department of Defense. “In fact, we are now at a point where we must concurrently modernize the entire nuclear triad and the infrastructure that enables its effectiveness.”
The 2022 Nuclear Posture Review highlighted the upgrade of the U.S. nuclear arsenal as a key priority for sustaining effective nuclear deterrence.
Planned over the next twenty years, modernization encompasses efforts to update each component of the nuclear triad, according to the Defense Department.
“This new ICBM system is the next evolution of missile and ground infrastructure technology, featuring significant improvements to range, accuracy, maintainability, and communications,” according to Northrop Grumman, the Sentinel ICBMs manufacturer. “The Sentinel system replaces the aging Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) system, which has been in service for over 50 years.”
Increasingly, the U.S. and allies are anxious about threats from Russia and North Korea. Russia has consistently threatened the United States and Europe with nuclear attacks. North Korea has also been testing and boasting its nuclear arsenal.
Many strategic arms reductions treaties have been signed and abandoned over the decades, most recently the New START Treaty between the U.S. and Russia.
“Russia has essentially cheated on every arms control treaty,” said Matthew Kroenig, professor of Government and Foreign Service at Georgetown University. “It is suspending compliance with, at least, parts of the New START Treaty.”
The New START Treaty was signed by Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev in 2010 and required the deconstruction of many warheads and deployment systems. Russia reports a buildup of nuclear arms from 2012 to 2016, according to archives from the State Department.
Arsenals were required to be limited to 700 deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and heavy bombers, 1,550 warheads on deployed ICBMs and SLBMs and warheads for deployed heavy bombers; and 800 deployed and non-deployed ICBM launchers, SLBM launchers, and heavy bombers.
Just before the central limits took effect in 2018, Russia reported a sharp decline in their arsenal.
In February of 2023 Russia formally suspended the New START Treaty. “There’s no clause in New START for suspension,” said Robert Peters, a research fellow at the Heritage Foundation. “One could make the argument that they’re already in breach of New START.”
“The threat environment has changed a lot in recent years,” Kroenig says. “In 2014 Russia invades Ukraine, 2022 the full scale invasion, Russia making nuclear threats, so the nuclear threat environment has gotten worse.”
Kroenig mentions the Russian “escalate-to-de escalate,” which he says the Russians use to threaten “limited nuclear use” and to deter the U.S. and NATO.
According to Kroenig, China has never been interested in bilateral nuclear arms control.
“China follows a policy of ‘no first use’ of nuclear weapons and a nuclear strategy that focuses on self-defense. China always keeps its nuclear strength at the minimum level required by national security, and never engages in arms race with anyone,” said China’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lin Jian in a press conference on Tuesday.
“Xi Jinping has said he wants a world–class military, That for all intents and purposes can deny the U.S. access to the western pacific, he’s told his military that they need to be ready to take Taiwan, knowing that would probably bring them in conflict with the U.S.,” said Peters. “We know that just last week the central committee said they need to expand the rate of nuclear weapons production and we know the Chinese are building dual capable theater range systems that can take out targets that range from Japan to northern Australia.”
Kroenig says that the U.S. wants to avoid an arms race but that Russia and China have been uninterested in diplomatic deterrence.
“That’s not working. Do we just leave ourselves vulnerable as they build up? Unfortunately, the only choice we’re left with is that we have to build the forces now that are necessary to deter attacks against ourselves and our allies,” Kroenig said. “Bring it on. We’ll out-compete them.”
“Maybe this is something that will bring them to the arms-control negotiating table in the future,” Kroenig added.
