Republicans may dominate the map in much of Trump Country, but veteran GOP strategist Karl Rove is warning conservatives not to start measuring the Senate curtains just yet.
During a weekend discussion on Fox News, Rove pointed to Iowa and Ohio as two races where Democrats have managed to put serious talent on the field — and where Republicans could find themselves in bruising, expensive battles all the way to Election Day.
That doesn’t mean Republicans are doomed. Far from it. But it does mean the GOP can’t afford the kind of complacency that turns comfortable leads into political headaches.
In Iowa, Rove argued Democrats emerged from the primary with the stronger candidate. He noted that Democrat Josh Turek comes from a more competitive political environment around the Des Moines area and has experience appealing beyond the Democratic base.
“The Democrats got the better candidate,” Rove said, while also making clear that Republicans are hardly without firepower. He praised Republican Ashley Hinson as a strong contender in her own right, noting her success in areas where candidates must win support from independents and even some Democrats.
The bigger wild card, according to Rove, may not be the Senate race at all. His eye is on the governor’s contest, where Republican primary voters stunned political insiders by rejecting the Trump-endorsed frontrunner and instead backing an outsider. Meanwhile, Democrats rallied behind State Auditor Rob Sand, whom Rove described as “a terrific candidate.”
That matters because competitive statewide races have a way of dragging voters to the polls. If Sand energizes Democratic turnout, that enthusiasm could spill over into the Senate contest and give Democrats a boost they otherwise might not enjoy.
Political handicappers have already taken notice. Iowa has shifted from a more comfortable Republican rating to a narrower GOP advantage, a sign that analysts believe the race deserves closer attention.
Still, Republicans have reasons for confidence. Iowa remains a state that has trended red in recent years, and Democrats have repeatedly struggled to convert media excitement into statewide victories.
Then there’s Ohio, where Democrats are once again turning to one of the few politicians in the state with proven crossover appeal: former Sen. Sherrod Brown. Rove didn’t dismiss Brown’s chances. In fact, he called Brown “a terrific candidate” and acknowledged that Democrats could hardly have chosen a stronger contender. But Republicans aren’t exactly sending a rookie into the ring.
Sen. John Husted may have arrived in Washington through appointment rather than election, but he spent years serving as lieutenant governor alongside Gov. Mike DeWine in an administration that remains broadly popular among Ohio Republicans. The challenge for Husted is simple: voters often view appointed senators differently from elected incumbents. He still has to introduce himself to many voters while simultaneously carrying out the duties of a sitting senator.
That’s a difficult balancing act in a state as politically important as Ohio.
Recent polling has generated headlines suggesting Democratic momentum, but Rove urged caution before Republicans start panicking. “I don’t believe a Democrat is eight points ahead,” he said, arguing that such a result would represent an enormous political swing from the last presidential election.
The bottom line from Rove’s warning wasn’t that Republicans are headed for disaster. It was that Democrats have managed to recruit candidates who can actually compete — a rarity in some recent cycles.
Iowa and Ohio may still lean red, but neither race looks like a coronation. Republicans remain favored in many analysts’ eyes, yet victories won’t come from reputation alone. In politics, the surest way to lose a race is to assume you’ve already won it.
