BS BRIEF:
- Former Maine Senate President Troy Jackson appears poised to become the Democratic nominee after Graham Platner withdrew from the race following multiple allegations of misconduct, which Platner has denied.
- A new University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll found Jackson receiving 49% support to Sen. Susan Collins’ 46% among likely voters, though the result is within the survey’s margin of error.
- Maine remains one of the most closely watched Senate races of 2026 and could play an important role in determining control of the U.S. Senate.
NEW POLL SHOWS JACKSON WITH NARROW EDGE OVER COLLINS AFTER DEMOCRATIC SHAKE-UP
Maine’s closely watched U.S. Senate race has taken another turn following Democrat Graham Platner’s withdrawal and the rapid emergence of former Maine Senate President Troy Jackson as the party’s likely replacement nominee.
Jackson consolidated support after several Democratic contenders ended their campaigns and endorsed him ahead of the party’s nominating convention.
The latest Pine Tree State Poll from the University of New Hampshire Survey Center found Jackson leading incumbent Republican Sen. Susan Collins, 49% to 46% among likely general election voters, with the remainder supporting another candidate or remaining undecided. Because the poll’s margin of error is approximately ±2.8 percentage points, the survey indicates a competitive race.
The same poll found that Democratic primary voters overwhelmingly favored Jackson as the replacement nominee after Platner exited the race. Most respondents also said Platner made the right decision in ending his campaign.
Platner suspended his campaign after facing allegations of sexual assault from former partners, which he denied. His withdrawal triggered a party process to select a replacement nominee before the state’s filing deadline.
Jackson, a former logger who served as president of the Maine Senate, has campaigned on labor issues and economic development and is expected to formally receive the Democratic nomination at the party convention.
Collins, first elected to the Senate in 1996, is seeking another term in what analysts continue to rate as one of the nation’s most competitive Senate contests.
Before anyone starts engraving Troy Jackson’s name on a Senate office door, it’s worth taking a closer look at what this poll actually says—and what it doesn’t. Jackson’s reported 49% to 46% advantage falls squarely within the survey’s stated margin of error. In practical terms, that means the poll does not establish a clear leader. It shows a highly competitive race where either candidate could realistically be ahead.
Timing also matters. The survey was conducted immediately after Democrat Graham Platner withdrew from the race and Democratic leaders quickly rallied behind Jackson. That’s precisely the kind of fast-moving political environment where polls often capture a temporary reaction rather than a settled electorate. Many Maine voters are only beginning to shift their attention from the Democratic nomination drama to the general election itself.
It’s also important to remember that this is just one snapshot. Susan Collins has repeatedly demonstrated an ability to outperform expectations in statewide races, benefiting from high name recognition, an established fundraising network and a long record of winning over independents in a state known for ticket-splitting. Until multiple independent polls begin showing the same trend, this survey should be viewed as one data point—not a definitive forecast of where the race will end up.
DBS WIRE SOURCES:
- University of New Hampshire Survey Center – Maine Democratic Primary Voters Want Jackson as Senate Nominee, in Close Race With Collins in General UNH poll
- Associated Press – Troy Jackson gains momentum to replace Platner as Democrats’ Senate candidate in Maine AP report
- Bangor Daily News – Poll: Troy Jackson in tight race with Susan Collins as Democrats rally behind him Bangor Daily News coverage
- Maine Public – Now that Graham Platner is out, who is running to replace him? Maine Public report
