(The Center Square) – Four months out from the 2026 midterm elections, Republicans’ chances of maintaining control of Congress appear slim, new polling shows.
The Center Square’s newest Voters’ Voice Poll revealed that 47% of U.S. registered voters surveyed would vote for a Democratic candidate if elections were held today, while 42% would vote for a Republican. Nine percent of voters haven’t made up their minds yet.
The poll was conducted by Noble Predictive Insights from Aug. 12-16, surveying 2,533 registered U.S. voters. The sample was comprised of 930 Republicans, 930 Democrats, and 673 Independents. Among independent voters, 330 respondents were classified as True Independents, or individuals who do not lean toward either major party when given the choice. The poll’s margin of error is +/- 2.0%.
While the leanings of members in either of the two major political parties remain relatively stable, swing voters’ choices pose a growing threat to Republicans’ control of both chambers, as they do today with slim margins in both the U.S. House and Senate. Only 33% of Independents total chose a Republican candidate, while 40% chose a Democratic candidate and 20% are still unsure.
Although more than half of True Independents remain undecided, those who have decided are veering to the Democrats, with 20% choosing the Democratic candidate versusl 10% choosing the Republican.
Critical bipartisan legislation funding farmers and road infrastructure has lagged in Congress, and Republicans in both chambers initially blocked War Powers Resolutions to halt military hostilities in Iran that are driving up gas and food prices.
Notably, groups particularly sensitive to the rising costs of living are turning to Democrats, who have criticized recent price increases due to the Iran conflict, President Donald Trump’s tariff policies, and Republican infighting or inaction in Congress over cost-of-living issues like healthcare and housing.
The median annual household income in the U.S. was $83,730 in 2024, according to the United States Census Bureau.
The August Voters’ Voice Poll showed that Americans earning under $50,000 per year favored Democrats over Republicans, 50% to 37%.
The median income for Black households was about $32,000 less than that, while the median income for Hispanic voters was approximately $18,000 less than the overall median income. Over two-thirds of Black voters and 59% of Hispanic voters chose a Democratic candidate in the poll.
Younger voters ages 18-29, who typically have the lowest salaries of any nonretired age group, also leaned left, with 54% supporting a Democrat and 36% supporting a Republican. Just one of the four age groups polled favored Republicans — 30 to 44-year-olds, 51% of them.
Mike Noble, founder and CEO of Noble Predictive Insights, told The Center Square that the generational differences displayed in the poll most likely reflect each group’s economic concerns.
“You see that younger voters, especially 18 through 29, who Trump definitely made inroads with last time, they’ve really fallen away. Economically, they’ve been hit the hardest,” Noble said. “And then 30 to 44, they usually get a little better income earnings at that point, they’re doing decently better. They prefer the Republican candidate – they’re kind of the populous crowd that [President Donald] Trump really dug into from the beginning.”
Female voters, whose median income in 2024 was about $14,000 less than males’, supported a Democratic candidate by 52% and a Republican candidate by 35% in the poll, with 11% remaining unsure.
By contrast, 51% male voters surveyed supported Republicans, while 40% supported Democrats and 7% remained unsure.
Even without Republicans’ political woes, political parties in power generally perform poorly during midterm elections.
“The main takeaway in the environment right now is that the Democrats really have that edge, and the race is still a little bit fluid with the True Independents,” Noble said. “People care more about these economic issues right now, and that’s where the pain point is.”
