Both President Biden and former President Trump have taken their lumps recently. In Biden’s case, it’s his failing mental acuity, age and allegations of corruption in office. For Trump, it’s an unprecedented slew of criminal indictments. Disaster? Hardly. Both candidates still hold big leads over likely challengers, the latest I&I/TIPP Poll shows.
In Trump’s case, he has widened his lead. In the latest online national poll, taken from among 509 Republican voters from Aug. 30-Sept. 1, we again asked: “If the Republican presidential primary were held today, whom would you support for the nomination?” The GOP poll has a margin of error of +/-4.4 percentage points.
Among Republican respondents, 60% answered former President Donald Trump, while support for No. 2, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis was 11%, and for No. 3, entrepreneur and author Vivek Ramaswamy, came in at 9%.
They were followed by Trump’s former vice president, Mike Pence (6%), former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley (3%), and a long list of other challengers at 1% or less including South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, conservative commentator and talk-show host Larry Elder, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchison, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, and former Texas Congressman William Hurd.
What’s surprising is that the worse the news for Trump, now with four indictments and counting, the stronger his support gets. In June, Trump got a hefty 55%, followed by 53% in July and 57% in August.
Among potential challengers, only Ramaswamy, a virtual unknown when he announced in February, has made a significant move from just 1% as recently as April to 9% now. Well-spoken and a tireless debater, Ramaswamy has risen as others have fallen.
Even so, Trump’s 49-point lead on DeSantis is the highest yet. There is little doubt that if the primaries were held in the coming weeks, Trump would win in a landslide. As recently as March of this year, Trump led his main challenger DeSantis by 51% to 22%, a 29-point gap.
The poll also tested the electability of Republican contenders to determine who had the best chance of defeating President Biden in the 2024 presidential election. Trump led in “electability” with 56% of Republicans, followed by DeSantis (13%) and Ramaswamy (8%).
President Biden, though he remains solidly in front of potential challengers with 38% support from the 606 Democrats that answered the I&I/TIPP Poll.
In September, none of the list of potential challengers had double-digit support against Biden with Democratic voters. After Biden at 38%, it’s former First Lady Michelle Obama (9%), current Vice President Kamala Harris (7%), Vermont Democratic Socialist Sen. Bernie Sanders (6%), former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (5%), environmental author and lawyer Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. and California Gov. Gavin Newsom (4%).
“Someone else,” at 3%, received the same support as Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren (3%). After them, a trailing line of eight other potential challengers received 2% support or less.
So why the sudden stasis in the numbers, despite the steady drumbeat of bad news around both parties’ leaders?
For Trump, there seems to be a growing recognition, especially among GOP voters, that there’s a strong political motivation behind the flood of indictments in recent months. If anything, that seems to have bolstered Trump’s support, as the I&I/TIPP Poll clearly shows.
With all his potential challengers running far behind in polls, some have begun to wonder if the GOP primary is actually a “Potemkin primary” — with a handful of candidates, knowing they’re not moving the needle against Trump, setting up future challenges for 2028.
In 2016, “Trump horrified GOP leaders with his attacks and refusal to commit to backing the party standard bearer, but the voters were unbothered,” wrote Politico columnist Jonathan Martin. “Today, most all of Trump’s opponents vow to support him as the nominee, even as a convicted felon, because they’re worried if they don’t, those same voters will very much be bothered.”
But will Trump, who now faces for four indictments and 91 felony charges, be able to win a general election? The August I&I/TIPP Poll found that 51% of voters believe the charges against Trump “seem legitimate and should be pursued,” while 39% called the charges either “political harassment” or “exaggerated.”
Even so, right now, recent polls show Biden and Trump running pretty much neck-and-neck. Given Trump’s troubles, how can this be?
Biden has a number of problems, starting with his age, but growing evidence of corruption in office has started to hurt him badly, In recent I&I/TIPP Polls, 56% said they believe Biden “likely” took bribes in office, while a majority also said that, if so, he should resign or be impeached immediately.
And his recent poll readings have been abysmal. Democratic Party pollster John Zogby recently gave Biden an “F” grade for his early September performance.
“This was a catastrophic week for President Joe Biden due in large part to a new CNN poll out on Wednesday,” Zogby wrote. “Not only is overall job approval at 39%, but 58% of those polled said that things are actually worse since he has been in office.”
Even the New York Times was prompted to run an op-ed asking plaintively, “Why Is Joe Biden So Unpopular?”
One troubling answer for Democrats: Biden seems to be losing support among minority and young voters, and even supporters show a lack of enthusiasm for 2024.
A late-August CNN/SSRS poll, based on 1,503 adults, showed alarming results for Democrats: Not only did Biden have a rock-bottom approval rating of 39%, but fully 67% of Democrats and those leaning toward voting Democratic want the party to nominate someone else next year.
Recent polls show Trump, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, and entrepreneur/author Vivek Ramaswamy running roughly tied with Biden, while moderate GOP candidates do better in head-to-head comparisons with Biden. Four Republican candidates have a solid lead over Biden: Nikki Haley, with a six point edge, followed by Pence, Christie and Scott at two points above Biden.
So how will the 2024 election be decided? One possible answer: Independents.
As the I&I/TIPP Poll shows, Trump has the support of 54% of all Republican-leaning independent voters, while Biden takes in just 25%. That’s a large enthusiasm gap that will be difficult for Democrats to close.
With independents making up as much as a third of the entire electorate, those voters are the big question mark, as recent history shows. In 2016, both Trump and Hillary Clinton won 88% of their parties’ votes. But Trump had a 46%-42% edge over Clinton on independents.
In 2020, Steve McCann of The American Thinker notes, both Trump and Biden again tied, this time 94%-94%. But Biden beat Trump soundly, 51% to 41%, among independents.
Will disgruntled independent voters stay at home? Or will they vote for Trump or Biden? The 2020 election might very well be decided by the answer to those questions.
I&I/TIPP publishes timely, unique, and informative data each month on topics of public interest. TIPP’s reputation for polling excellence comes from being the most accurate pollster for the past five presidential elections.
Terry Jones is an editor of Issues & Insights. His four decades of journalism experience include serving as national issues editor, economics editor, and editorial page editor for Investor’s Business Daily.
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9/11 – The Day That Changed The World
On Tuesday 11 September 2001, suicide attackers hijacked four passenger jets and crashed them into New York’s World Trade Center, the Pentagon, and a field in Pennsylvania, killing almost 3,000 people in the worst terrorist attack in U.S. history.
Two airplanes hijacked by terrorists tied to al-Qaeda flew into the World Trade Center in New York, collapsing the towers later in the day. Just outside Washington, another hijacked plane flew into the Pentagon. A fourth hijacked plane crashed into a field in Pennsylvania as passengers, and the crew attempted to retake the cockpit.
In all, 2,977 people (not counting the 19 hijackers) died, most of them in New York. The attack remains one of the most traumatic events of the century, not only for Americans but also for the world.
Less than a month after the attacks, President George W. Bush led an invasion of Afghanistan to eradicate al-Qaeda and hunt down Bin Laden. However, it was not until 2011 that U.S. troops finally located and killed Bin Laden in neighboring Pakistan.
U.S. troops left Afghanistan in 2021 after nearly 20 years, amid fears that al-Qaeda could make a comeback.
TIPP Takes
Geopolitics And Geoeconomics
1. Russia Hails Unexpected G20 ‘Milestone’ As Ukraine Fumes – BBC
Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has praised a joint declaration by G20 leaders in Delhi that avoids condemning Moscow for its war against Ukraine.
Russia had not expected consensus, and agreement on the wording was “a step in the right direction.”
The closing G20 statement denounced using force for territorial gain but did not mention Russian aggression, prompting criticism from Ukraine.
Related tippinsights Editorial: At G21, The West Gets Rebuked On Ukraine
2. Ukraine’s Intelligence Chief Doesn’t Foresee Long War, Reveals Russian Troops Numbers – Al Arabiya
“I don’t endorse the assumption that this will be a long war. This is my personal opinion, based on the analysis of the data we have concerning the enemy,” Kyrylo Budanov said.
He said that the Russians are incapable of conducting protracted operations.
Vadym Skibitskyi, Deputy Chief of the Defense Intelligence, said Russia “amassed over 420,000 troops in our temporarily occupied territories and on the Crimean Peninsula.
3. Russian Black Sea Fleet Says Destroyed U.S.-Made Military Boats With Ukrainian Troops – Al Arabiya
Russia’s Ministry of Defense said its Black Sea Fleet aviation destroyed three U.S.-made military boats with Ukrainian troops on board and were heading towards Crimea.
The ministry reported that Russian air defenses had destroyed eight Ukrainian drones off Crimea’s Black Sea coast earlier.
4. South Korea’s Defense Ministry Sees ‘Possibility’ Of Kim-Putin Summit In Russia – Yonhap
The assessment came amid media reports that Kim and Putin could hold a summit on the sidelines of an economic forum in Vladivostok this week.
There has been no word from both Pyongyang and Moscow on Kim’s possible trip.
Pyongyang has recently sought to bolster military ties with Moscow due to growing security cooperation among South Korea, the United States, and Japan.
5. China On “High Alert” As U.S. Canadian Ships Transit Through Taiwan Strait – AFP
“The Eastern Theatre Command of China’s PLA organized naval and air forces to trail their entire course and stand alert in accordance with laws and regulations,” said Senior Colonel Shi Yi.
The United States and Western allies have increased “freedom of navigation” crossings by naval vessels of both the Taiwan Strait and the disputed South China Sea to reinforce that both are international waterways, angering Beijing.
6. Xi’s Tight Control Hampers Stronger Response to China’s Slowdown – The Wall Street Journal
Xi Jinping has placed the Communist Party—and himself—in greater command of China’s economy over the past decade. Now, his centralization of power is delaying the country’s response to its worst economic slowdown in years.
While officials worry more about growth, they can’t act without the top leader’s approval.
Related tippinsights Editorial: Discontented Party Elders Reprimand Xi Jinping’s Leadership
7. Xi Jinping Is Done With the Established World Order – The Atlantic
China’s Xi Jinping skipping the G20 summit marks a dramatic turn in China’s foreign policy. Xi has apparently sought to make China an alternative to the West for several years.
Now Xi is positioning his country as a full-on opponent—ready to align its own bloc against the United States, its partners, and the international institutions they support.
8. U.S. Denies Cold War With China In Historic Vietnam Visit – BBC
President Joe Biden denied that the U.S. is attempting to stem China’s international influence after signing a new historic deal with Vietnam.
He said the American actions were not about containing or isolating China but about maintaining stability in accordance with international rules.
The Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with Vietnam is a major relationship upgrade for the U.S.. It is the highest level of diplomatic ties extended by Vietnam, one of China’s oldest and staunchest friends.
9. Spy Claim Prompts Call For Rethink On UK’s China Stance – BBC
The UK government is pressured to take stronger action against Beijing after a parliamentary researcher was arrested amid accusations he spied for China.
Senior Conservative MPs have called for China to be categorized as a threat, backed by some cabinet ministers.
10. China Slams UK Spying Reports As ‘Political Farce,’ After Sunak Raises Issue With PM – AFP, Reuters
Asked about the media reports that the British pair were “arrested on suspicion of providing intelligence to China,” a spokesperson for the Chinese embassy in London said it was “malicious slander.”
The arrests led British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak to tell Chinese Premier Li Qiang at the G20 summit in New Delhi that he had “very strong concerns” about Beijing’s “interference” in democracy.
11. Alibaba’s Ex-CEO Resigns As Jack Ma’s Lieutenants Take Up Positions – Bloomberg
Alibaba’s former chief, Daniel Zhang decided to quit just months after agreeing to lead its cloud division adding uncertainty to China’s largest e-commerce company just as it is navigating a breakup.
The executive ceded his dual roles of chief executive officer and chairman to Eddie Wu and Joseph Tsai. Wu and Tsai are close confidantes of Alibaba co-founder Jack Ma.
12. “Time To Move On”: Former Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin Quits Politics – NDTV
Sanna Marin, Finland’s former prime minister, plans to resign as a member of parliament to take up a new position as a strategic advisor at the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change.
Ms. Marin became one of Europe’s youngest leaders in 2019 when she assumed the role of prime minister and oversaw Finland’s successful NATO membership application.
“Time to move on,” Ms Marin said, according to Finnish public broadcaster YLE.
13. Mossad Chief Accuses Iran Of Plotting Attacks, Vows To Respond ‘in Heart’ Of Tehran – A.P.
The head of Israel’s Mossad spy agency said that Israel is prepared to strike “in the heart of Tehran” to track down the perpetrators of over two dozen attempts to hit Israeli and Jewish targets worldwide.
At a security conference, David Barnea said that Israel and its allies had foiled 27 attacks in Europe, Africa, Southeast Asia, and South America over the past year.
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Republished with permission from TIPP Insights
