President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are in a statistical tie in voters’ preferences for the 2024 presidential election, the latest I&I/TIPP Poll shows, representing more bad news for Biden’s and the Democrats’ hopes of holding the White House.
The national online I&I/TIPP Poll, taken from Nov. 1-3 from 1,242 voters, has a +/-2.8 percentage point margin of error. Specifically, poll participants were asked: “If the presidential election were held today, and the following were the candidates, for whom would you vote?”
This poll gauged the head-to-head competition between the two leading candidates, Biden and Trump, and included no other names apart from “other,” “not sure,” and “prefer not to answer.
Among those taking the poll, 43% answered “Joe Biden, the Democrat,” while 41% answered “Donald Trump, the Republican.” Another 9% responded “other,” while 6% said “not sure” and 1% “prefer not to answer.”
Given the poll’s margin of error of plus-or-minus 2.8 percentage points, the poll essentially represents a dead heat. But the demographic breakdown of responses holds some surprises.
For instance, Democrats (88% Biden, 6% Trump, 3% other) strongly prefer Biden, while not surprisingly, Republicans (86% Trump, 7% Biden, 5% other) almost equally strongly prefer Trump. So independents, who make up more than a third of the electorate, could be the tie-breaker, depending on turnout: They break 34% in favor of Trump, 32% for Biden.
By region, Biden holds a clear lead in the Northeast (46% Biden, 38% Trump) and the West (45% Biden, 35% Trump), but is losing in the Midwest (38% Biden, 44% Trump) and in a virtual dead-heat in the South (44% Biden, 43% Trump).
Some numbers jump out as particularly significant.
Trump has hefty leads with women (45% Trump, 35% Biden), white voters (47% Trump, 37% Biden), and among all those earning $75,000 or less (average 45% Trump, 36% Biden).
By contrast, black and Hispanic voters (Biden 61% support, Trump 23%), those earning more than $75,000 (56% support Biden, just 33% Trump), and men (51% Biden, 36% Trump) show there are sharp cleavages within major demographic sub-groups.
These splits extend even to differences between cities and less-developed areas. Urban areas (58% Biden, 31% Trump), suburbs (42% Trump, 38% Biden) and rural regions (51% Trump, 31% Biden) show that Biden is winning inside America’s cities — but not the suburbs or rural countryside.
Likewise, among age groups, Biden loses all but one. Of those aged 25-44, 54% support Biden, while just 35% support Trump. The 18-24 cohort support Trump over Biden by 40%-34%, those 45-64 by 46%-37%, and those over 65+ are knotted at 45%-45%.
But that wasn’t our the poll question.
I&I/TIPP also asked the same question, adding already-announced third-party candidates lawyer and activist Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., and author, former professor and activist Cornel West.
The difference isn’t great.
Both Biden and Trump lose votes with the two leftist activists. Overall, their share of the vote drops to 37% for Trump, 39% for Biden, still a two-percentage-point gap. RFK Jr. gets 9% of the vote, while West garners 2%.
But it’s still a dead-heat, statistically speaking, between Biden and Trump.
The only question is: Will both Biden and Trump make it to the finish line?
First come the Democratic and GOP primaries, now just two months away. But also awaiting Biden are growing suspicions that, due to advanced years and apparent mental impairment, he is no longer capable of fulfilling presidential duties.
More damaging are possible looming and highly credible charges of public corruption by Biden and his son Hunter, with millions of dollars of payments from overseas sources in China, Russia and Ukraine already verified. If proved beyond a doubt, Biden likely would be impeached.
And then there’s the economy. While the administration has repeatedly bragged about the supposed success of “Bidenomics,” the economy is in fact not improving for most Americans, who now suffer from inflation, job insecurity and declining real wages.
As for Trump, he has been indicted four times for a variety of alleged crimes, and one of those trials is already underway in New York. Still, supporters and others note the highly irregular nature of such a large number of felony charges being filed against a prospective candidate by officials serving in his opponent’s government.
Even so, a conviction and a prison sentence in any of the trials scheduled for New York, Washington, D.C., Georgia and Florida could derail Trump’s 2024 presidential hopes.
All that said, it’s still a fact that both Trump and Biden have huge leads in preference polls for the upcoming primaries and 2024 election.
The I&I/TIPP Poll shows that, among Republican respondents, Trump still receives 60% support. No.2, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, is way behind at 13% backing from the party.
DeSantis is followed in turn by entrepreneur-author-activist Vivek Ramaswamy (7%), former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley (5%), then by a bottom-tier of candidates including former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchison, all at 3% or less support.
“Someone else” takes 2% support, while “not sure” gets 7%.
Biden also holds his huge lead within his party, at least as things now stand.
The I&I/TIPP Poll gives Biden overwhelming 72% support in the primaries, with declared challengers Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips and author-activist-politician Marianne Williamson each receiving 4% of the potential vote.
But what if he doesn’t run, as many now think might be the case? Even some in his own party are pushing Biden to walk away.
In recent days, a New York Times/Sienna Poll set off major alarms among Democrats, as a Times story noted Trump now leads Biden in five of six key swing states.
Significantly, Biden swept all six states in 2020. Trump now leads Biden by 10 points in Nevada, six points in Georgia, five points in both Arizona and Michigan, and four points in Pennsylvania. Biden’s sole lead is in Wisconsin, where he beats Trump by two points. Taken together, Trump’s lead is 48-44 in all six swing states.
Meanwhile, a CBS Poll found that Biden is losing his once-robust support, from young, black and Hispanic voters.
“Those financial factors may be hurting Mr. Biden with black and Hispanic voters, key parts of the Democratic coalition, who are not convinced they would be helped financially if he wins a second term,” the CBS News poll said. “Hispanic voters are much likelier to say their finances would improve under Trump than Mr. Biden. And most black voters do not expect their finances to change if Mr. Biden wins again.”
Trump’s support among blacks, the report noted, had jumped by 22 points, something the Times described as “unseen in presidential politics for a Republican in modern times.”
Fearing an electoral cataclysm, key Biden supporters are abandoning ship. One of former President Barack Obama’s key advisers and chief strategist, David Axelrod, is letting it be known: Time for Biden to go.
“If he continues to run, he will be the nominee of the Democratic Party,” Axelrod said on X, formerly Twitter. “What he needs to decide is whether that is wise; whether it’s in HIS best interest or the country’s?”
What if Biden doesn’t run? The I&I/TIPP Poll shows no logical replacement has a significant edge. When asked who they would support if Biden didn’t run, Democrats backed the following: Vice President Kamala Harris (26%); former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and former First Lady Michelle Obama, all at 10%; Calif. Gov. Gavin Newsom (9%); Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg (8%); and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren (6%).
No other Democrat gets more than 3%. It’s likely to be an interesting 2024.
I&I/TIPP publishes timely, unique, and informative data each month on topics of public interest. TIPP’s reputation for polling excellence comes from being the most accurate pollster for the past five presidential elections.
Terry Jones is an editor of Issues & Insights. His four decades of journalism experience include serving as national issues editor, economics editor, and editorial page editor for Investor’s Business Daily.
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TIPP Takes
Geopolitics And Geoeconomics
1. UN Human Rights Chief Accuses Israel And Hamas Of War Crimes – BBC
Speaking at the Rafah border crossing, Volker Türk said: The atrocities that Palestinian armed groups perpetrated on the seventh of October were heinous, brutal, and shocking. They were war crimes, as is the continued holding of hostages.”
“The collective punishment by Israel of Palestinian civilians amounts also to war crimes, as does the unlawful forcible evacuation of civilians.”
2. U.S. Mounts Pressure On Israel As Humanitarian Crisis In Gaza Deepens – AFP
Secretary of State Antony Blinken laid out the United States’ clearest boundaries on the war, telling Israel Washington believes there should be “no forcible displacement of Palestinians from Gaza -– not now, not after the war.”
He also said: “No reoccupation of Gaza after the conflict ends. No attempt to blockade or besiege Gaza. No reduction in the territory of Gaza.”
His comments appeared to indicate that American officials may be growing more concerned over Israel’s conduct of the war – even as Washington denies that it is seeking to influence its ally on its conduct.
3. Al-Sisi Rejects U.S. Proposal Of Egypt Managing Gaza Security Post Hamas Defeat: Report – Al Arabiya
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and his intelligence chief Abbas Kamal met with Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Director William Burns in Cairo and discussed the American proposal.
“The Egyptian president said his government wouldn’t play a role in eliminating Hamas as it needs the militant group to help maintain security at the country’s border with the Gaza Strip,” the officials said.
4. Belgium’s Deputy PM Calls For Sanctions Against Israel Over Gaza Bombings – Reuters
Belgium’s deputy prime minister, Petra De Sutter, called on the Belgian government to adopt sanctions against Israel and investigate the bombings of hospitals and refugee camps in Gaza.
She said the European Union should immediately suspend its association agreement with Israel and also said an import ban on products from occupied Palestinian territories should be implemented, and violent settlers, politicians, and soldiers responsible for war crimes should be banned from entering the EU.
5. European Commission Recommends Ukraine, Moldova Begin Process To Join EU – UPI
In a report published Wednesday, the European Commission recommended that the European Union consider “accession negotiations” for Ukraine and Moldova’s eventual entry into the EU.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Ukraine had met 90% of the goals laid out by the commission last year for it to join the bloc.
Von der Leyen also praised Moldova for implementing reforms, including reform to the judiciary and increased efforts against organized crime and corruption.
6. Putin Will Avoid Ukraine In His 2024 Campaign, To Focus On Western Criticism: Report – Al Arabiya
Instead of highlighting the war on Ukraine, Putin’s advisers will focus on an election campaign that paints him as a leader who made Russia an “island of tranquility.”
At the same time, the West is “engulfed in chaos,” sources told Meduza, one of Russia’s most widely read independent news sites.
Meduza sources claimed that Putin’s ratings increased after speeches in which he criticized the West and that as the election looms closer, Russian state propaganda will “intensify” publishing stories about “difficulties” in Western countries. Russia is expected to hold its presidential election on March 17, 2024.
7. Russia Strikes Civilian Ship In Black Sea Port Of Odesa – Ukraine – BBC
Ukraine’s Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov said the ship was supposed to transport iron ore to China. An anti-radar missile struck the Liberian-flagged vessel.
Vessels entering and leaving the port of Odesa have been at risk of Russian attack since Moscow pulled out of a deal earlier this year that allowed for the safe export of Ukrainian grain.
8. China Slips Into Deflation As Economic Headwinds Persist – WION
According to a report by Bloomberg, The National Bureau of Statistics reported a 0.2 percent decline in consumer prices last month, contrary to expectations, following two months of near-zero inflation.
China’s inflationary woes in 2023 are rooted in both domestic and international factors. A housing slump weakened consumer confidence, and a significant drop in global commodity prices from the previous year’s highs contributed to the nation’s low inflation rate.
9. Chinese Aircraft Carrier Shandong Spotted Sailing In Taiwan Strait – Kyodo News
A naval formation led by China’s Shandong aircraft carrier has been sailing through the Taiwan Strait, Taiwan’s Defense Ministry said, prompting it to dispatch “appropriate forces” to monitor the situation.
The fleet entered the strait dividing the mainland and the self-ruled island on Wednesday. It sailed in a northerly direction along the median line, a boundary both sides had tacitly respected for decades, which China has recently ignored.
10. China Says Climates Talks With U.S. ‘Ended Successfully’ – AFP
Beijing’s Ministry of Ecology and Environment said the two sides “engaged in a comprehensive, in-depth exchange of views,” adding they “achieved positive results on developing bilateral climate change cooperation and action.”
Beijing and Washington agreed to “jointly push for the success of the COP28 conference”, the ministry said. China, the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitter, has pledged to peak carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and become carbon neutral by 2060.
11. Iran-Backed Houthi Rebels Shoot Down U.S. Drone Off Yemen – WION
Houthi rebels in the past have shot down American drones, but the latest incident has taken place just when the situation in the Middle East is tense due to the ongoing Israel-Hamas war.
Houthi rebels have claimed that the American MQ-9 Reaper drone war spying as part of the USA’s help to Israel in the ongoing war reported AFP.
12. U.S. Launches 2nd Round Of Airstrikes On Iran-Backed Weapons Storage Facility – UPI
U.S. warplanes struck a weapons storage facility in eastern Syria used by Iran-backed militant groups responsible for drone and rocket attacks on American troops over the past three weeks, the Department of Defense said.
Less than two weeks ago, the U.S. conducted similar air strikes on facilities used by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The Pentagon has warned third actors from trying to take advantage of the ongoing chaos in Gaza.
13. Sudan’s RSF Closes In On Capturing All Of Darfur – Al Jazeera
Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF) are about to take over Darfur entirely from the Sudanese army, experts and activists have told Al Jazeera.
They said that more mass atrocities could occur at the hands of the paramilitary force, which has been accused of war crimes and genocide, once it conquers the region – a province the size of France. RSF has a long history of grave human rights abuses against non-Arab communities in Darfur, as well as perceived critics.
14. Scorching October Puts 2023 On Track To Be Hottest Year In 125,000 Years – Al Jazeera
The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), the EU’s climate monitor, said that October was 0.4 degrees Celsius (0.7 degrees Fahrenheit) hotter than the previous record for the month, set in 2019.
“When we combine our data with the IPCC [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change], then we can say that this is the warmest year for the last 125,000 years,” C3S’s Deputy Director Samantha Burgess said.
15. World’s Newest Island Formed In Japanese Archipelago After Undersea Volcanic Eruption – WION
In a remarkable geological event, a brand-new island emerged from the Pacific Ocean’s depths, caused by an undersea volcanic eruption.
The newly formed island is situated just off the coast of the Japanese island of Iwo Jima and is now officially recognized as part of the Ogasawara Islands chain.
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Republished with permission from TIPP Insights
