It’s pretty clear that both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are running neck and neck in their race for the presidency. But when it comes to asking voters about who would do a better job in the White House fixing their major concerns, Trump has a commanding lead, the latest I&I/TIPP Poll shows. Biden is in trouble.
For January’s online national I&I/TIPP Poll, taken Jan. 3-5 from among 1,401 adults, registered voters were asked “who would you say has better policies” for each of seven key issues: “reducing taxes,” “effectively handling the immigration and border security situation,” “growing the economy,” “addressing climate change,” “reducing violence and crime in the country,” “controlling government spending,” and “reducing homelessness.”
The score: Trump wins in five categories, to Biden’s two. But, as always, party affiliation matters a lot. The poll has a +/-2.6 percentage-point margin of error.
On reducing taxes, 45% said Trump would do a better job, vs. 34% saying Biden would. Another 21% were “not sure.” For Democrats, the results were 69% Biden, 13% Trump; for Republicans, 82% Trump, 7% Biden; for independents, 43% Trump to 24% Biden.
That partisan pattern (Trump winning overall support, with Democrats leaning for Biden, Republicans strong for Trump, and independents showing milder but persistent support for Trump’s policies) mostly held for all seven issues.
But there were two big exceptions: climate change and homelessness, both of which were Biden strengths with voters.
On climate, Biden ruled the issue with 48% to Trump’s 28% support. Some 25% were “not sure.” But party differences were still stark: Democrats gave Biden 80% support, just 7% to Trump; Republicans, 56% Trump and 17% Biden, with 28% “not sure.” Independents gave 44% support to Biden, just 22% to Trump on the climate issue.
On homelessness, Biden edged out Trump by 37% to 33%, with a hefty 30% describing themselves as not sure. However, Dems were 72% Biden, 10% Trump, while Republicans gave Trump 65%, to Biden’s 8%. Among independents, Biden and Trump were essentially tied: 27% of independents favored Biden, while 26% favored Trump. But a sizeable 45% were “not sure.”
On all four of the remaining issues, overall Trump held solid or slim leads over Biden — immigration and border (Trump 49%, Biden 35%), economic growth (Trump 47%, Biden 37%), reducing violence and crime (Trump 39%, Biden 38%), and controlling government spending (Trump 43%, Biden 36%).
The data show red flags of caution for both candidates. The large “not sure” responses on all seven issues means many voters are undecided. Indeed, across all the questions, an average of 22% answered “not sure,” rather than either of the candidates. That’s a potentially large bloc of undecideds when it comes to key issues.
But, if anything, the data overall should be alarming to Biden’s camp. As we noted, his support on key issues generally is much weaker than Trump’s on all but two of the seven issues.
That lack of appeal on individual issues is met by an even greater concern for Biden supporters: his weakness with independents, a key swing group in the upcoming election.
It is safe to say that two things will be decisive in the next election: Party turnout, and how independents react to the major candidates. They now form a large, and increasingly influential, bloc of voters. Candidates that ignore their views put themselves in immense electoral peril.
A recent Gallup Poll shows why. It found an equal share of voters, 27%, called themselves Democrats and Republicans. But 41% described themselves as “independent,” tied for the highest share ever. So, this year, based solely on voters’ self-identification, roughly four of every 10 votes cast will be by independents.
“The increase in the percentage of independents has come more at the expense of Democrats than Republicans, which might be expected since Democrats were previously the largest political group,” according to Gallup.
Among independents, Trump leads Biden on tax cuts (43% to 24%), immigration (48% to 24%), growing the economy (45% to 27%), reducing crime and violence (35% to 28%), controlling government spending (40% to 25%).
On homelessness, Biden edges out Trump among independents, but barely, 28% to 27%. With a 2.6 percentage point margin of error, that’s a statistically insignificant difference. Only on one issue — climate change — does Biden have a significant lead among independents. It’s 44% Biden, 22% Trump.
Both major primary challengers to Trump — Florida Gov. DeSantis and former U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Nikki Haley — had hoped to use independent support as a springboard to block the former president’s electoral path.
But on Sunday, reading pollsters’ grim prognostications for his expected performance against Trump in Tuesday’s New Hampshire GOP primary vote, DeSantis announced he was ending his campaign and would now throw his support behind Trump.
That leaves only Haley standing, after finishing a disappointing third behind Trump and DeSantis in the recent Iowa Caucus. She is counting on independents to make a strong showing, if not to win, in New Hampshire against the politically potent Trump MAGA juggernaut.
But that’s a tall order. Andrew Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, estimates Haley would need somewhere around 70% to 75% of the independent vote to upset Trump.
“That’s never happened before,” Smith told Reuters. “That’s a really tall order.”
In head-to-head competition, Trump has a small lead over Biden, as our I&I/TIPP Poll shows. But when it comes to the issues that most Americans care about, and potential support from independents on those key issues, he likely will be hard though not impossible to beat both in the primaries and in the general election.
I&I/TIPP publishes timely, unique, and informative data each month on topics of public interest. TIPP’s reputation for polling excellence comes from being the most accurate pollster for the past five presidential elections.
Terry Jones is an editor of Issues & Insights. His four decades of journalism experience include serving as national issues editor, economics editor, and editorial page editor for Investor’s Business Daily.
Our performance in 2020 for accuracy as rated by Washington Post:
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1. Biden’s Close Ally Says Netanyahu Isn’t Aligned With Middle East Peace Quest – Bloomberg
Chris Coons, a U.S. senator and President Joe Biden’s reelection campaign co-chairman, portrayed Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu as an obstacle to peace in the Middle East and suggested he’s wrong to reject calls by the U.S. and Arab countries for movement toward a Palestinian state.
Coons’ comments hint at tension between Biden and Netanyahu, who spoke on Friday for the first time in almost four weeks.
2. U.S. And UK Launch Fresh Strikes On Houthis In Yemen – BBC
A joint statement by the Pentagon confirmed “an additional round of proportionate and necessary strikes” against the Houthis.
The Pentagon said Monday’s strikes hit eight targets, including an underground storage site and Houthi missile and surveillance capability. This is the eighth strike by the U.S. against Houthi targets in Yemen. It is the second joint operation with the UK. The U.S. and UK said they were trying to protect the “free flow of commerce.”
3. Israel Proposes Two-Month Gaza Ceasefire As Part Of Hostage Deal: Report – AFP
Israel has proposed to Hamas via Qatari and Egyptian mediators a pause in fighting of up to two months as part of a deal to free all the hostages being held in Gaza, the news site Axios reported.
The report said the deal would take place in multiple stages, the first of which would see the release of women, men over 60, and those in critical medical condition.
The proposal does not include promises to end the war. Still, it would involve Israeli troops reducing their presence in major cities in Gaza and gradually allowing residents to return to the territory’s devastated north.
4. Netanyahu Tells Relatives Of Israeli Hostages Hamas Has Not Made A Solid Deal Offer – Reuters
Israel PM Benjamin Netanyahu pushed back after speculation that a new release of Gaza hostages was in the works, saying Israel was taking an unspecified initiative in the absence of an offer by the Palestinian militant group Hamas.
“There is no real proposal by Hamas. It’s not true,” a statement from Netanyahu’s office quoted him as telling representatives of hostage families after some relatives stormed a committee session in parliament, demanding a release deal.
5. EU Insists On Two-State Solution For Israel-Palestine Conflict – Al Arabiya
EU foreign ministers pressed Israel for an eventual two-state solution with the Palestinians after the war in Gaza at meetings with the top diplomats from the two sides and key Arab states in Brussels.
The 27 EU ministers first met Israel’s foreign minister Israel Katz before they were due to sit down separately with the Palestinian Authority’s top diplomat, Riyad al-Maliki.
6. Britain ‘Disappointed’ By Netanyahu’s Stance On Palestinian Statehood – Reuters
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s opposition to a future sovereign Palestinian state is “disappointing,” British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s office said.
Netanyahu and U.S. President Joe Biden have disagreed over the future creation of an independent Palestinian state, with Netanyahu saying at the weekend he would not compromise on “full Israeli security control of all territory west of the Jordan River.”
7. According to Ukrainian Officials, There Could Have Been Peace – The American Conservative
It appears that the prolongation of the war is the result of Western intervention.
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov claimed peace was achievable early in the war when diplomatic talks were held and a draft agreement was signed.
Several Ukrainian officials who were members of the delegation sent to Istanbul in March and April of 2022 to negotiate with Russia have confirmed that peace was within reach.
Former UN Assistant Secretary-General in UN peace missions Michael von der Schulenburg says, “NATO had already decided at a special summit on March 24, 2022, not to support these peace negotiations.”
The historical record shows that you do not have to rely on the claims of Putin and Lavrov. To determine whether peace was possible in the early weeks of the war, one need only ask the Ukrainians.
8. Zelenskiy Proposes Bill Allowing Ukrainian Citizenship For Foreign Fighters – RFE/RL
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy marked Ukraine’s Day of Unity by introducing a draft law that allows multiple citizenships.
The move would make it possible for foreign fighters and ethnic Ukrainians outside the country to hold Ukrainian passports while not giving up other citizenship. Zelenskiy said in his address that the law would not apply to “citizens of the aggressor country,” a thinly veiled reference to Russian citizens.
9. Russia’s Lavrov Talks Middle East, Gaza With Iran, Turkey, Lebanon – Reuters
The Russian foreign ministry said that Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met with his counterparts from Iran, Turkey, and Lebanon ahead of the United Nations Security Council meeting to discuss the Middle East.
The ministry said the bilateral meetings focused on the Gaza Strip, Syria, and “the tense situation” in the Red Sea. Lavrov said he will propose “collective efforts” at the meeting to solve the Middle East crisis.
10. Navalny Back In Russian Solitary Confinement Again – RFE/RL
Associates of imprisoned Russian opposition leader Aleksei Navalny say the outspoken Kremlin critic was placed in punitive solitary confinement for ten days for “failing to promptly introduce himself to a prison guard.”
It’s Navalny’s second placement in solitary confinement at the Polar Wolf prison in Russia’s Arctic region, where he was transferred last month. Navalny also disclosed that at 5 a.m. every morning, he is forced to listen to the Russian national anthem and a patriotic song by a pop singer and Russian President Vladimir Putin supporter.
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In resolving an ongoing dispute, tech giant Apple reportedly paid a substantial fine of 1.2 billion roubles ($13.65 million) to Russia’s Federal Antimonopoly Service (FAS).
The fine was imposed over allegations of Apple abusing its dominant market position about in-app payments. The fine resulted from a previous ruling where the FAS asserted that Apple’s distribution of apps through its iOS operating system provided its products with a competitive advantage.
12. Russian Sanctioned Over Australia’s Worst Data Breach – BBC
A Russian man, Aleksandr Ermakov, has been sanctioned for his role in Australia’s worst data breach. The cyber sanctions include financial penalties and a travel ban for Aleksandr Ermakov.
The personal information of 9.7m Australians was stolen from the country’s largest health insurer, Medibank, in late 2022. These records were then posted online.
Australian intelligence authorities said Ermakov is part of the infamous Russian cyber-crime gang REvil – which has been linked to attacks across Europe, the U.S., and the UK.
13. China Rights Record In Spotlight At UN – AFP
A civil liberties crackdown, repression in Xinjiang, and Hong Kong’s draconian national security law are among the concerns expected to be raised during a UN review of China’s rights record on Tuesday.
Beijing is likely to face intense scrutiny, especially from Western countries, during its regular Universal Periodic Review (UPR) – a rights record examination that all 193 UN member states must undergo every four to five years.
14. China’s State-Owned Banks Rally To Stabilize Yuan Amid Stock Market Turmoil – WION
China’s major state-owned banks took decisive action on Monday to shore up the yuan, tightening liquidity in the offshore foreign exchange market and actively selling U.S. dollars onshore as domestic equities experienced a significant downturn.
With the benchmark Shanghai Composite index marking its largest one-day drop since April 2022, falling by 2.7 percent, the move aimed to prevent the yuan from depreciating too rapidly, signaling a clear policy effort to stabilize the currency amid negative market sentiment on equities.
15. China Courts Europe And Southeast Asia With Visa-Free Travel – Nikkei Asia
China has dramatically expanded its visa-free programs in the past three months, indicating a growing effort to boost tourism and cross-border business as the economy slows.
The relaxed rules show Beijing’s priority is the economy and hint at its geopolitical strategy. Beijing added Ireland and Switzerland to the list of countries whose passport holders can enter without visas. This expands China’s outreach to European travelers after recently granting visa-free tourism and business access to citizens of France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Spain for 15 days.
16. Taiwan Detects Record 6 Chinese Balloons – AFP
Taipei’s Defense Ministry said six Chinese balloons were detected around Taiwan, with one flying directly above the island.
The ministry, which releases daily data on China’s military presence around Taiwan, said the balloons were all spotted on Sunday at an altitude from 15,000 to 17,000 feet. It was the highest number detected since the ministry started regularly releasing data on balloon sightings in December.
17. Brainwashing Still A Global Threat, New Book On China Says – RFA
Brainwashing the public through mass propaganda campaigns by the Chinese Communist Party and other authoritarian regimes is a global threat, according to political scholars who recently published a new book on the topic.
The book, “Brainwashing in Mao’s China and Beyond,” takes an in-depth look, through the lenses of political science, sociology, and international relations, at the kind of “cognitive warfare” waged by the Communist Party from the Mao era onwards, co-editor Xia Ming said in an interview.
18. South Korea, UK Renegotiate Trade Deal For Enhanced Chips Cooperation – RFA
South Korea and the United Kingdom have initiated their Free Trade Agreement renegotiations to better encompass the latest bilateral advancements in chips and supply chain cooperation.
The effort to enhance cooperation in semiconductor production and future industries adds weight to President Joe Biden’s strategy to create an alternative global supply chain that knits democratic nations closer together while requiring less of China’s input.
19. Kim Jong Un: Is North Korea’s Leader Actually Considering War? – BBC
North Korea experts – by nature, a cautious group who seek to avoid sowing panic – have been left reeling by two of their own.
Last week, the two eminent analysts believed the pariah state’s leader was preparing for war.
“We believe, that like his grandfather in 1950, Kim Jong Un has made a strategic decision to go to war,” wrote Robert L Carlin, a former CIA analyst and Siegfried S Hecker, a nuclear scientist who’s visited the North several times, in an article on specialist site 38 North.
20. U.N. Global Migration Agency Issues Urgent Appeal For $7.9 Billion In Funding – UPI
The International Organization for Migration launched an urgent public appeal, calling for $7.9 billion in funding to aid crisis relief efforts for refugees and displaced populations worldwide.
Dubbed the IOM Global Appeal, the global migration arm of the United Nations calls for donations from governments, private-sector entities, philanthropists, and other partners to “create a system that realizes migration’s promise as a force for good throughout the world.”
21. Narco-Sub With $27m Of ‘Scorpion’ Cocaine Seized In Colombia – BBC
A 50 ft semi-submersible carrying almost 800kg of cocaine, including parcels stamped with a scorpion symbol, has been intercepted by the Colombian Navy – the first to be detected this year.
The Navy estimated the haul to be worth $27m and believed it was going to the U.S. or Europe. Narco-subs are a popular way to transport drugs as they can go largely undetected and can be sunk after delivery. They are often homemade and constructed using fiberglass and plywood.
22. Better Mental, Physical Health In Older People Tied To Living Near Nature – Washington State University
Even small differences in the availability of urban green and blue spaces may be associated with better mental and physical health in older adults, according to a Washington State University study.
The study’s findings showed that having just 10% more forest space in a person’s residential ZIP code was associated with reduced serious psychological distress, which covers mental health problems that require treatment and interfere with people’s social lives, work or school. Similarly, a 10% increase in green space, tree cover, water bodies, or trail length lowered the chance that older people reported their general health as poor or fair.
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Republished with permission from TIPP Insights
