Given the Biden administration’s official response to Hamas’ Oct. 7 attacks on Israel and the recent call by several nations to recognize a Palestinian state, you might think that Americans are ambivalent about Israel’s tough stance against Hamas terrorism. But in fact, Americans broadly support Israel’s actions by more than 2-to-1, according to the latest I&I/TIPP Poll.
The national online poll, taken from May 1-3, asked 1,435 adults the following question: “Do you support or oppose Israel taking tough actions, such as eliminating Hamas to ensure its security within its borders?”
Of those responding, 54% said they either “strongly” supported (29%) taking such action, or “somewhat” supported it (25%).
By contrast, only 21% said they either “strongly” opposed (9%) or “somewhat” opposed (12%) Israel’s fight (the poll has a margin of error of +/-2.7 percentage points).
Overall, 24% described themselves as “not sure,” a sign that many Americans have yet to fully sort out the issues involved.
There are some key differences within different demographic categories, particularly by political affiliation.
Republicans are far more likely to support Israel (68%) than either independents (49%) or Democrats (48%). Not surprisingly, the reverse is true for opposition: Just 12% of GOP members oppose Israel’s military actions, versus 27% of Dems and 24% of independents.

The I&I/TIPP Poll also asked respondents a second question: “Generally speaking, do you favor or oppose the establishment of an independent Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza Strip?”
On this question, the biggest response was “not sure,” with 39%. A small 36% plurality either “strongly favored” (16%) or “somewhat favored” (20%) a Palestinian state, versus 24% that rejected the move either “strongly” (11%) or “somewhat” (13%).

Taking it a step further, I&I/TIPP further qualified the question by asking a specific follow-on:
“Generally speaking, do you favor or oppose the establishment of an independent Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, even if it were to be led by Hamas, the PLO, or another jihadist group operating in the West Bank and Gaza?”
On this, Americans were adamant: Again, by more than 2-to-1, or 49% to 18%, they rejected the idea of a Palestinian state on Israel’s border led by the PLO, Hamas, or other extremist Islamist group.
The opposition was bipartisan, though still tilted heavily towards the Republican side. Among Democrats, it was 42% oppose, 25% support; among independents, 49% oppose, 15% support; and among Republicans, 58% oppose, 14% support.
And also once again, “not sure” was a big response: 33% hadn’t formed an opinion.

Recent developments could make the debate over a Palestinian state more than just political background noise in the 2024 presidential election.

President Biden’s decision to not supply “offensive weapons” to Israel as it cleans out Rafah (Hamas’ last stronghold in Gaza), and his insistence on a “two-state” solution with the creation of a Palestinian state on Israel’s border, has bolstered Hamas and strengthened the anti-Israel movement in the U.S. and in Europe.
The U.S. is also now reportedly in back-channel talks with Iran, presumably about keeping Mideast peace, but possibly also including “their shared desire for a different government in Israel.”
Even as the U.S. talks with Iran, the International Criminal Court has issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on “war crime charges.”
Last week, three influential European nations – Norway, Spain and Ireland – added their names to the list of 143 countries that support the creation of a Palestinian state. Some note that given the terrorist nature of Hamas’ attack, the West appears to be encouraging further such attacks by rewarding the last one.
The global move to appease Palestinian extremists is reflected on campuses across the U.S. Demonstrations, takeovers of portions of campus property, physical and verbal attacks on Jewish students, and demands for “divestment” from Israeli-based investments and companies have become features of daily life at major universities around the country this year.
How bad is it? A senior Hamas official “thanked” American students for their help.
”We thank the great student flood which emerged from the American, European, and Western universities,” senior Hamas official Khaled Mashal said. “We have an opportunity to defeat Israel, Allah willing. We have an opportunity to dismantle the Zionist enterprise. We have an opportunity to change the world.”
There’s a growing list of lawsuits against major universities for allowing and even encouraging antisemitism, with strong and growing indications of heavy involvement by outside leftist groups in training and grooming a new generation of demonstrators.
Meanwhile, as angry donors shut their wallets to further gifts, many universities are having second thoughts and are trying to rein in the out-of-control antisemitism now sweeping the nation’s campuses. But is it too late?
A more important question might be: Will this be a deciding factor in the 2024 presidential election?
Given the Democratic Party’s growing friction with Israel’s government, and indications that some of the anti-Israel demonstrations “get funding from foundations attached to some of the biggest names in Democratic circles,” it seems likely that this issue will grow in importance.
As the I&I/TIPP data clearly indicate, Republicans are among the strongest backers of Israel. Will Republican candidates, including Donald Trump, gain support from those who strongly back Israel, in particular American Jewish voters?
A little history may be instructive. President Jimmy Carter won 71% of the Jewish vote in 1976, fairly typical for Democratic candidates, but saw that plunge by 26 points in 1980 after his administration disastrously backed the Arab-backed U.N. Security Council Resolution 465, which described Jerusalem as “occupied territory.”
The result: In 1980, Ronald Reagan won 39% of the Jewish vote, the most since President Eisenhower.
Former President Trump has already attracted backing for his persistent support of Israel, including a strong working friendship with Netanyahu. Trump’s Abraham Accords, which he brokered and Biden backed away from, were a rousing success. They led to the biggest improvement in Israeli-Arab relations in decades.
Will this attract Jewish voters, who typically vote about 70% for the Democratic Party? It remains to be seen. But for voters as a whole, the threat of war in the Mideast, accompanied by anti-Israel, anti-American turmoil at U.S. universities, might be enough to move the needle.
“Voters who may not be moved by the foreign policy component are likely to have strong feelings about intifada banners hanging from university administration buildings and Palestinian flags flown in place of Old Glory,” noted Steve Stampley, a former congressional staffer, in the Washington Examiner. “An escalation of these tactics in Chicago this summer by an emboldened progressive wing could very well spell electoral disaster for Biden in November.”
I&I/TIPP publishes timely, unique, and informative data each month on topics of public interest. TIPP’s reputation for polling excellence comes from being the most accurate pollster for the past five presidential elections.
Terry Jones is an editor of Issues & Insights. His four decades of journalism experience include serving as national issues editor, economics editor, and editorial page editor for Investor’s Business Daily.
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TIPP Takes
Geopolitics, Geoeconomics, And More
1. Israeli Strike Hits Rafah Area After Hamas Barrage – BBC
The strike came hours after Hamas fired eight rockets from Rafah towards Tel Aviv, the first long-range attacks on the city since January.

In a statement released after the blast inside Gaza on Sunday night, the IDF said it had “eliminated” two senior Hamas figures – Yassin Rabia and Khaled Nagar – in a “precise” air strike “in north-west Rafah.”
Israel’s military offensive has continued in Rafah despite the International Court of Justice ruling on Friday that it must halt.
2. ICC Prosecutor Says Israel Not ‘Akin’ To Hamas – AFP
“I am not saying that Israel, with its democracy and its supreme court, is akin to Hamas, of course not,” International Criminal Court prosecutor Karim Khan, who rarely speaks publicly, told the Sunday Times newspaper.

“I couldn’t be clearer. Israel has every right to protect its population and to get the hostages back. But nobody has a license to commit war crimes or crimes against humanity. The means define us.”
3. Jordan’s Crown Prince Criticizes Global Community’s Failure To Stop Gaza ‘Massacre’ – Al Arabiya
“It is inconceivable that the entire world cannot stop this ongoing tragedy. We are all shocked by the international community’s inability to stop this massacre,” the crown prince said in an interview with Al Arabiya.

He questioned Israel’s commitment to peace, referencing the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative launched by Saudi Arabia.
The crown prince also highlighted the escalating situation in the West Bank and accused the Israeli government of attempting to provoke a regional war.
4. South African Universities Face Israel Scanner As Government Backs Palestine – Al Jazeera
In capitals around the world, South Africa has emerged as a leading supporter of the Palestinian cause, calling for an end to Israel’s war on Gaza and pushing the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to issue tough criticisms against Israel.

But back home, South Africa’s higher education institutions are grappling with some of the same debates and protests that have roiled campuses in the U.S. and Europe, where governments have been criticized for their continued support of Israel.
South Africa’s highest-ranking universities have refused to disclose their ties with Israeli organizations and institutions and have resisted student calls for a total academic boycott.
5. Ukraine Updates: Zelenskyy Invites Biden, Xi To Peace Summit – D.W.
More than 80 delegations have already said they will attend, but Zelenskyy also wants U.S. and Chinese leaders to “support the peace summit with your personal leadership and participation.”

Meanwhile, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is resisting a possible expansion of Western military support for Ukraine, saying he does not support allowing the Ukrainian military to use German weapons to attack targets in Russia.
6. In Rare Foreign Foray, Putin Arrives In Uzbekistan For 2-Day Visit – RFE/RL
Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in Uzbekistan, where he was met at the Tashkent airport by President Shavkat Mirziyoev amid reports some Western nations are trying to pull Central Asian nations away from Russia’s sphere of influence.

International investigations have identified Uzbekistan as one of the main entry points into Russia for goods that are subject to sanctions. Putin has traveled sparingly since he launched Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
7. China Urges South Korea Japan To Uphold Free Trade At Three-Way Summit – Al Jazeera
China’s No. 2 official has urged Japan and South Korea to reject protectionism and uphold globalization as the countries kicked off their first trilateral summit in almost five years.

Chinese Premier Li Qiang says the three countries should view each other as ‘partners and opportunities for development.’
8. Japan Spots China Ships Near Senkaku Islands For Record 158th Day – Kyodo News
Chinese ships were spotted near the Japanese-controlled Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea for the 158th straight day, hitting a fresh record since the Japanese government put the islets under state control in 2012.

Chinese vessels have repeatedly entered Japanese territorial waters around the uninhabited islets since the Japanese government bought them from a private owner and put them under state control.
9. China’s Latest Answer To OpenAI Is ‘Chat Xi PT’ – Financial Times
Beijing’s latest attempt to control how artificial intelligence informs Chinese internet users has been rolled out as a chatbot trained on President Xi Jinping’s thoughts.

The country’s newest large language model has been learning from its leader’s political philosophy, “Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era,” as well as other official literature provided by the Cyberspace Administration of China.
For now, the new model is being used at a research center under the powerful internet regulator, but eventually, it may be released for wider use.
10. Researchers Grapple With The Tightened Data Landscape In China – RFA
As China puts up more barriers around data, researchers all over the world increasingly have to grapple with how to work with less.

However, according to interviews with analysts, activists, and scholars from various disciplines, they are also coming to terms with the restrictions by discovering new tools or new research areas.
11. U.S. To Lift Freeze On Offensive Weapons Sales To Saudi Arabia: Sources – Al Arabiya
One source indicated that there would be a significant resumption in the types of weapons sold, though no further details were provided.

Under President Joe Biden, the U.S. initially targeted Gulf countries with several foreign policy actions, including lifting the terror designation from Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi militia, despite strong opposition from traditional Gulf and Arab allies.
Since then, Saudi Arabia has facilitated peace talks and established direct communication lines with the Houthis, who had been lobbing missiles and bomb-laden drones at the Kingdom for years.
12. France To Lift New Caledonia’s State Of Emergency – D.W.
The French presidency said the state of emergency in riot-hit New Caledonia would be lifted at 5 a.m. Tuesday in the French overseas territory to allow for political dialogue.

Paris is planning to give voting rights to thousands of non-indigenous, long-term residents of the territory. However, indigenous Kanaks strongly oppose the move, saying it would dilute their vote’s influence.
New Caledonia, around 10,600 miles from mainland France, has been ruled from Paris since 1853.
13. North Korea Informs Japan It Will Launch Satellite Before June 4 – Kyodo News
North Korea has notified Japan of a plan to launch a satellite-carrying rocket before June 4, the Japanese government announced, putting the region on high alert over the possible use of ballistic missile technology.

The notice, which came ahead of a trilateral summit between Japan, China, and South Korea in Seoul, designated three maritime danger zones believed to be the areas where rocket debris may fall.
14. India Seeks To Extend Influence In Middle East, Africa: Jaishankar – Nikkei Asia
External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said in a speech that emphasized the Asian power’s growing global role that India is pushing the boundaries of its cooperation and interests further north and west with links to Central Asia, the Middle East, and Africa.

“The transformation of India is critical to strengthening multipolarity in Asia itself, a prerequisite for a multipolar world,” Jaishankar told the Future of Asia forum in a video message.
15. Mexico On Course To Elect Its First-Ever Woman President – AFP
The two front-runners, Ruling-party candidate Claudia Sheinbaum and opposition hopeful Xochitl Galvez are competing to break the highest political glass ceiling in a country with a history of gender violence and inequality.

The only man running, Jorge Alvarez Maynez, is trailing far behind with just days left before the Sunday vote.
16. Most Young Breast Cancer Survivors Can Go On To Have Babies – HealthDay News
About 73% of breast cancer survivors attempting to conceive achieved a pregnancy, and 65% had a live birth, researchers report.

Those who opted for egg/embryo freezing before cancer treatment tended to have a higher live birth rate, researchers found. The stage of a woman’s breast cancer at diagnosis had no relation to her later ability to achieve pregnancy or have a live birth, results showed.
17. World Agenda June 2024 – tippinsights
Events in June include the first debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, crucial elections in Mexico, the EU and Iran, the 80th anniversary of the D-Day landings, Euro 2024 in Germany, and the publication of Jill Biden’s children’s book.

Jun 1, U.S.: First Lady Jill Biden publishes Willow the White House Cat, a children’s picture book telling the story of how her short-haired tabby ended up at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.
Jun 2, Mexico: Former Mexico City mayor Claudia Sheinbaum and senator Xóchitl Gálvez are vying to become the first female president of the world’s largest Spanish-speaking country.
Jun 5, UK: Banknotes featuring the portrait of King Charles enter circulation in Britain, more than a year after their design was unveiled.
Jun 6-9, EU: Citizens across 27 EU member states elect a newly expanded 720-seat European Parliament, with parties on the far right eyeing significant gains.
Jun 6, France: Heads of state and war veterans mark the 80th anniversary of the D-Day landings, when 160,000 Allied troops landed on the Normandy beaches during World War II.
Jun 14-July 14, Europe: Football takes center stage at Euro 2024 in Germany, with Italy the defending champions.
Jun 27, U.S.: President Joe Biden and Republican rival Donald Trump face off in the first of two debates as the race for the White House gathers pace.
Jun 28, Iran: An emergency presidential election takes place in Iran to find a successor to Ebrahim Raisi, killed in a helicopter crash on May 19.
Republished with permission from TIPP Insights