The hot topic of immigration has come to a boil in recent weeks with a clash between President Joe Biden and Texas Gov. Greg Abbott over the building of a border fence to keep illegal entrants from crossing into the U.S. Americans lean strongly toward Abbott in the feud, expressing strong support for a border wall, the latest I&I/TIPP Poll shows.
Along with the economy and health care, immigration has leapt to the fore among the many issues that concern Americans this election year. The latest national online I&I/TIPP Poll, including 1,402 registered voters, asked three questions related to the topic, with special focus on the U.S.-Texas border row.
To begin with, voters were asked: “Do you support or oppose building a wall along the southern border to combat illegal immigration?”
The score wasn’t close: Among all respondents, 59% supported constructing a wall along our southern border, either “strongly” (41%) or “somewhat” (18%). Just 32% oppose the idea, either “strongly” (17%) or “somewhat” (15%).
As with many other things in America these days, political differences can be huge. Democrats are split close to evenly, with 43% supporting a wall and 47% opposing it. Republicans overwhelmingly like the idea, with 85% support and just 11% opposition. A slight majority of independents (51%) back a wall, while 37% reject it.
Pro-wall sentiment among minority voters is likewise solid: Blacks (52% support, 34% oppose) and Hispanics (54% support, 37% oppose) both support a border wall.
The ensuing two questions relate to the fractious dispute between Biden and Abbott regarding the latter’s construction of a border fence to keep illegal immigrants from crossing into his state.
In response, some suggested that Biden might take control of the Texas National Guard in an effort to halt the border fence construction.
Specifically, I&I/TIPP asked: “If President Biden nationalizes and takes control of the Texas National Guard to stop the state from building a border fence to prevent illegal border crossings, would you support or oppose his decision?”
On this, only 38% said they would support his decision, either strongly (20%) or somewhat (17%), while a plurality of 50% said they would oppose it, either strongly (37%) or somewhat (13%).
On this question, political party choice tells the tale: Democrats would support Biden strongly at 61% to 23%. Republicans, by comparison, would even more strongly oppose the move, with just 16% supporting Biden and 78% opposing him. Likewise, only 33% of independents support such a bold move by Biden, while 49% oppose it.
In the final query, I&I/TIPP Poll asked: “An estimated 25 states support Texas Gov. Greg Abbott in building a fence, even though the Biden administration opposes it. How concerned are you that such a broad conflict could turn into an actual conflict or even war between the states over illegal immigration.”
“War between the states”? Apparently, it’s not at all far-fetched. Many Americans see illegal immigration as a make-or-break issue.
Among those responding to the I&I/TIPP Poll, 49% said they were either “very concerned” (18%) or “somewhat concerned” (31%) that the widening differences over illegal immigration could turn into open conflict. In contrast, just 38% said they were “not at all concerned (14%)” or “not very concerned” (24%).
Democrats and Republicans are nearly identical in their feelings: Democrats break 54% concerned vs. 34% not concerned, while Republicans are 55% concerned, 36% not concerned. Independents? They aren’t as worried. While 41% are concerned, 46% aren’t.
Race is another dividing point. White respondents were 47% concerned, 43% not concerned, while blacks and Hispanics showed far greater concern, 59% to 28%, over the possibility of violent civil conflict or even secession.
With the 2024 election looming, the issue has risen to the surface in public debate. Abbott’s challenge to federal authority has forced his dispute onto the national agenda.
Further inflaming public opinion, key Biden administration officials have suggested they see no problem on the border, except for U.S. policy keeping illegal entrants out in the first place.
“Wouldn’t it be more orderly, and wouldn’t it be responsible governance to be able to deliver a lawful pathway to fill what we have, which is a labor need, and cut the exploitative smugglers out and give individuals a path to arrive lawfully, safely, in an orderly way, to perform labor that we need?” said Alejandro Mayorkas, Biden’s Homeland Security chief, in an interview with the New York Times Magazine this week.
In 2023’s final month alone, a record 250,000 people from Latin America, Asia, Africa and the Middle East illegally crossed our southern border. All told, an estimated 6.2 million illegal immigrants have come to the U.S. during Biden’s time in office.
By comparison, data during the Trump administration’s years in office suggest that the number of illegal residents in the U.S. actually shrank by 400,000 during his term.
Congressional Republicans are fighting mad over what they call Biden’s open-border policies.
Last week, the Homeland Security Committee voted to send articles of impeachment against Mayorkas to the full House for failing to secure the border as required by law. However, while a simple majority would send the impeachment motion to the Senate for a full trial, it will require a two-thirds majority there to prevail.
At the state level, however, action is picking up.
Abbott and a number of other mostly red state governors, some 25 in all, argue that Biden’s actions on the border violate the Constitution. Specifically, illegal immigration critics cite Articles I and IV of the Constitution, which basically give states the right to defend themselves against invasion if the federal government can’t or won’t.
Recently, this idea was tested after federal Border Patrol agents were ordered to cut down portions of the fence that Abbott’s Texas had erected.
While a Supreme Court ruling tossed out a legal injunction against the Border Patrol, “contrary to many media reports – (the Supreme Court) didn’t rule that what Texas had done was illegal, or order Texas to stop policing the border,” wrote University of Tennessee law professor and Instapundit blogger Glenn Harlan Reynolds.
The next test comes in March, when a new Texas law goes into effect allowing the state to arrest illegals and deport them. Expect political and legal fireworks, and, potentially, even violence.
Stung by political blowback from his own party, Biden has suggested Congress must act, not him. Not so, argue some lawmakers.
“Anyone who says Biden needs new laws to stop the migrant crisis is a liar,” tweeted Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida this week. “The law RIGHT NOW says if the President finds that the entry of any aliens would be detrimental to the U.S. he can ‘suspend the entry of all aliens or any class of aliens’.”
With a near 50-50 split among the states on this issue, will this be a breaking point for our union, a casus belli that pits one state against another?
As this month’s I&I/TIPP Poll shows, Americans largely side with restricting illegal immigration flows into the country, including building a wall to keep those who would enter illegally out. But, as Reynolds notes, potentially “what you get looks disturbingly like the early stages of a civil war.”
I&I/TIPP publishes timely, unique, and informative data each month on topics of public interest. TIPP’s reputation for polling excellence comes from being the most accurate pollster for the past five presidential elections.
Terry Jones is an editor of Issues & Insights. His four decades of journalism experience include serving as national issues editor, economics editor, and editorial page editor for Investor’s Business Daily.
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1. Hamas Proposes Ceasefire Plan Over 135 Days, Leading To End Of Israel’s War On Gaza – Reuters
Hamas has proposed a ceasefire plan that would quiet the guns in Gaza for four-and-a-half months, during which all hostages would go free, Israel would withdraw its troops from the Gaza Strip, and an agreement would be reached on an end to the war.
The militant group’s proposal – a response to an offer sent last week by Qatari and Egyptian mediators – comes amid the biggest diplomatic push yet for an extended halt to the fighting and was met with hope and relief in the Gaza Strip.
2. Israel’s Netanyahu Rejects Ceasefire Proposal, Insists On Total Victory Over Hamas – Al Arabiya
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said total victory in Gaza was within reach, rejecting the latest offer from Hamas for a ceasefire to ensure the return of hostages still held in the besieged enclave.
“The day after is the day after Hamas. All of Hamas,” he told a press conference, insisting that total victory against Hamas was the only solution to the Gaza war.
3. Netanyahu Orders Troops To Prepare For Push Into Rafah – AFP
Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu has ordered troops to prepare to enter the overcrowded Gazan city of Rafah, even as a new round of talks aimed at securing a truce with Hamas was set to open Thursday in Cairo.
In televised remarks, Netanyahu said he had ordered troops to “prepare to operate” in the city and that “total victory” over Hamas was just months away.
4. New Round Of Gaza Negotiations To Start Thursday In Cairo: Source – AFP
Egypt and Qatar are sponsoring a new round of negotiations to start Thursday in Cairo aimed at achieving “calm” in Gaza as well as a prisoner-hostage exchange, an Egyptian official said.
A Hamas source with knowledge of the matter confirmed the Palestinian group had agreed to the talks, with the goal of “a ceasefire, an end to the war and a prisoner exchange deal.”
5. UN Chief Warns Of ‘Age Of Chaos’ As Security Council Stays Divided On Gaza – Al Jazeera
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said he was “especially alarmed” after Israel said last week that it intends to focus its military assault in Gaza on the southern city of Rafah, where more than a million people have sought shelter.
In his address, Guterres also called for reforms to the Security Council, which has been unable to agree on a joint position on the war in Gaza despite calls from multiple UN agencies for an urgent ceasefire.
6. Massive Explosion Reported Near Russian City That Is Home To Missile Production Plant – RFE/RL
A large explosion lit up the night sky near Votkinsk, a city that houses a Russian military production facility.
Reports say the explosion occurred at the Votkinsk Machine-Building Plant, which produces some of the Russian military’s most sophisticated missiles.
“This is not an emergency, [but] a planned [event],” a spokesman for the Ministry of Emergency Situations was quoted as saying by TASS, the Russian state media outlet. But there was no indication of a planned test on the ministry’s website.
7. Sweden Closes Probe Into Nord Stream Pipeline Blast – Al Jazeera
Prosecutors in Stockholm announced that they had wrapped up their probe into the apparent attack in September 2022, nearly seven months after Russia invaded Ukraine.
The Swedish authorities, who have previously said that they suspect an unknown state actor of responsibility, are halting the probe after verifying that the case does not fall under its jurisdiction.
The undersea explosions ruptured the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, Russia’s main natural gas supply route to Germany, until Moscow cut off supplies at the end of August that year.
8. Ukraine MPs Approve Use Of Dead Soldiers’ Sperm In Landmark Vote – WION
As casualties continue to rise among Ukrainian troops engaged in a protracted conflict with Russia, concerns over the nation’s fertility policies have gained prominence.
The Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine’s parliament, has endorsed a set of legislative changes aimed at facilitating the posthumous use of frozen sperm from deceased soldiers.
The discourse in Ukraine mirrors similar debates in other nations, such as Israel, where posthumous extraction of sperm from deceased soldiers is permissible.
9. China Faces Deepest Deflation Risks Since 2009 As Consumer Prices Plummet – WION
The National Bureau of Statistics revealed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) experienced a 0.8 percent year-on-year drop, marking the most significant decline since September 2009.
Analysts had anticipated a 0.5 percent year-on-year fall.
The persistent deflationary pressure depicted in China’s CPI data underscores the urgency for decisive and swift actions by policymakers to prevent the entrenchment of deflationary expectations among consumers.
10. China No Longer No. 1 Source Of U.S. Imports, 1st Time Since 2008 – Kyodo News
On a customs-cleared basis, China was the second-biggest source of imported goods in the United States last year, losing the top spot it had held since 2008 to Mexico, official trade data showed.
U.S. imports from Mexico increased 4.6 percent from 2022 to $475.61 billion, making up 15.4 percent.
11. Amid Stock Turmoil, China Replaces Securities Regulator – UPI
China’s Communist Party Central Committee replaced the nation’s securities regulator, appointing Wu Qing to replace Yi Huiman amid turmoil and a downturn in China’s capital markets.
The China Securities Regulatory Commission said it is responding to market conditions with a series of measures to “strengthen supervision on the securities lending business in light of market conditions.”
Wu is known as the “Broker Butcher” for cracking down on securities traders.
12. Chinese Companies Close R&D Spending Gap With U.S., Led By Huawei – Nikkei Asia
Major Chinese companies continue to boost R&D spending, eclipsing their European counterparts to rank second, following the U.S. in 2022, led by tech giants like Huawei Technologies.
Research and development expenditures by 2,500 leading companies worldwide totaled 1.25 trillion euros ($1.36 trillion) in 2022, a European Commission report published at the end of 2023 found. China accounted for 17.8% of this total, surpassing Europe’s ratio of 17.5% and trailing only the U.S. at 42.1%.
13. U.S. Says It Killed Pro-Iran Commander In Iraq Strike – AFP
An American air strike in Iraq killed a senior commander from a pro-Iran armed group who was involved in attacks on Washington’s troops in the region, the U.S. military said.
The strike killed “a Kataeb Hezbollah commander responsible for directly planning and participating in attacks on U.S. forces in the region,” according to CENTCOM, which said there are “no indications of collateral damage or civilian casualties at this time.”
14. U.S. Denies Israeli Reports Of Imminent Blue Line Deal With Lebanon – Al Arabiya
Several reports suggested that the U.S. and European countries were on the verge of finalizing a deal that would halt cross-border clashes along the Blue Line between Lebanon and Israel.
Axios reported that the U.S. and Europe would announce economic support for Lebanon to “sweeten the deal for Hezbollah.” U.S. officials poured cold water on these reports “as largely fake news” but stressed that senior Biden administration officials were continuing to lead efforts to restore calm along the border.
15. EU Launches Legal Action Against Hungary’s ‘Sovereignty’ Law – Al Jazeera
The European Union executive said it had sent a formal notice to Budapest informing it that the legislation violates the bloc’s democratic values and fundamental rights.
The nationalist Orban insists that the legislation, which clamps down on the foreign funding of political candidates and anybody or individuals with influence over public discourse, is vital to curb foreign influence.
Opponents of Prime Minster Viktor Orban’s authoritarian regime claim the new laws threaten to stifle his political rivals, as well as critical media and civil society.
16. UN Should Update North Korea Rights Report: Experts – RFA
The United Nations should update its landmark 2014 report about human rights abuses taking place in North Korea to account for the reign of Kim Jong Un, according to a panel of experts speaking on the 10th anniversary of the report’s release.
The speakers, which included Australian jurist Michael Kirby, the chair of the Commission of Inquiry, or COI, on Human Rights in North Korea that wrote the 372-page report a decade ago, said the document remained the most exhaustive account of abuses in North Korea.
17. Ecuador: Court Legalizes Euthanasia In Landmark Ruling – D.W.
The verdict comes after a case was brought by Paola Roldan, a terminally ill patient. She argued that people with serious and incurable diseases have a right to die with dignity.
The ruling directed lawmakers and health authorities to establish guidelines for the practice of euthanasia. Seven of Ecuador’s Constitutional Court judges voted in favor of the decision.
18. Pakistan Election: Internet Access Cut Off As Controversial Polls Begin – BBC
Pakistan has temporarily suspended mobile services as millions head to the polls to vote in a new government. An interior ministry spokesman said the measure was warranted, citing recent terror incidents in the country.
The election comes almost two years since the previous prime minister, cricketer-turned-politician Imran Khan, was ousted in a no-confidence vote. Three-time PM Nawaz Sharif is now on the ballot in what many analysts say is Pakistan’s least credible election yet.
19. 2023 Likely Hottest In 100,000 Years, Scientists Call It A “Warning To Humanity” – AFP
Earth has endured 12 months of temperatures 1.5C hotter than the pre-industrial era for the first time on record, Europe’s climate monitor said, in what scientists called a “warning to humanity.”
Storms, drought, and fire have lashed the planet as climate change, supercharged by the naturally occurring El Nino phenomenon, stoked record warming in 2023, making it likely the hottest in 100,000 years.
Republished with permission from TIPP Insights
