A fresh poll by the University of New Hampshire finds that former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg is now the front-runner among declared and potential Democratic candidates for the 2028 presidential race in New Hampshire. He captured 19 percent support in the Granite State—more than any other contender. The poll ran from October 16 to 21 and included 1,547 New Hampshire residents, with a margin of error of ±2.5 percentage points. Among the subset of 602 likely Democratic primary voters, the margin of error was ±4 percentage points.

Buttigieg—who previously campaigned in the 2020 Democratic primary and later served in the Biden administration as head of the U.S. Department of Transportation—leads with 19 percent support. Trailing him is California Governor Gavin Newsom at 15 percent. Farther back, Vice-President-turned-candidate Kamala Harris received 11 percent. Interestingly, progressive firebrand Alexandria Ocasio‑Cortez logged 14 percent. Over the past year, she’s joined with Sen. Bernie Sanders on a “Fighting Oligarchy” tour aimed at energizing the liberal base.

The poll also highlights deep internal friction within the Democratic Party. Some on the far left are urging a full-tilt move further left, while centrist Democrats are pointing fingers at the party’s liberal wing for recent electoral disasters. This debate comes in the wake of the chaotic 2024 election cycle—marked by President Joe Biden dropping out after a botched debate, assassination attempts targeting Donald Trump, and Harris entering the race abruptly. Later in her book, she revealed that she rejected Buttigieg to be her running mate because he was gay.

In short: the Democrats are trying to figure out whether they’re the party of moderate technocrats—like Buttigieg—or of ideological bomb-throwers like Ocasio-Cortez. For now at least, New Hampshire says they’re leaning the technocrat route.